Economists see on average a 25 percent chance of a recession within 12 months, according to a Wall Street Journal survey published in January, the highest level since October 2011 and up from just 13 percent last year.
On Friday, markets were spooked when the yield curve inverted, meaning interest rates on short-term bonds rose above those of 10-year notes, a fairly reliable recession signal. Traders say the bond market may be overreacting, while stocks seem to be ignoring the recession warnings.
El-Erian, former CEO and co-CIO of Pimco, sees signs that the economy actually has momentum. He said that while President Donald Trump‘s 2017 tax stimulus is weakening, business investment is picking up and the labor market is strong. “We still have job creation well above what’d you expect this time in the cycle,” El-Erian said.
“There’s no way there’s going to be a recession,” he added.
–CNBC’s Patti Domm contributed to this report.
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