‘Dangerous and unprecedented’ polar vortex could break record this month

An unprecedented record early polar vortex breakdown could leave Britain in a cold snap and even blanketed in snow later this month.

The unusual phenomenon, potentially prompted by the El Niño effect, may see the vortex – a large circulation of strong winds high above the Arctic Circle – weaken and even split, thereby sending colder air further south.

British winters are usually kept relatively mild and wet by a constant straight jet stream over the North Atlantic.

However, a possible breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) threatens to disrupt this pattern.

Met Office forecaster Marco Petagna said: ‘At the moment, we’ve got a warming taking place in the stratosphere. The polar vortex in the stratosphere is starting to weaken.’

Meteorologists believe a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) is among the factors which could distort the SPV, involving a rise in temperatures in the polar stratosphere, weakening its strong westerly winds.

This can either displace the vortex from the North Pole or split it into two smaller vortices.

If high pressure is established to the north and northeast of the UK, this can bring about colder and drier conditions as well as sleet or snow showers.

Jim Dale, an expert at the private meteorological service British Weather Services, said people needed to be prepared for extreme weather events, so they emerge from them with a ‘smile not a grimace’.

‘Most people think it is never going to happen to them, but we need to be prepared for whatever Mother Nature throws at us’, he told the Telegraph.

He added that the prospect of a polar vortex breakdown was ‘debilitating, dangerous and hazardous’.

If a breakdown were to occur this month it could be record-breaking, smashing the record for the earliest event of its kind.

The previous record for the earliest date was set on November 28 back in 1969.

Judah Cohen – a climatologist at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) – told Scientific American magazine: ‘This is a big event because it’s so unprecedented.’

A key determining factor in the severity of the breakdown’s impact on the UK climate is where the colder winds hit in Europe.

Current analysis suggests Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Germany could be among the worst affected countries.

Some previous SSW events have resulted in acute cold snaps in Britain, while others have greater impacted other countries in the Northern Hemisphere.

A large-scale collapse of the vortex could see weather affected for up to 40 days, explained Andrew Charlton-Perez, a professor of meteorology.

He said however that the impact was unlikely to be a severe as the Beast from the East in 2018, given that air over Europe isn’t currently as cold as it was then.

But he praised the government’s ‘Be Ready’ campaign for encouraging people to keep basic essentials such as food, water and gas in case of power outages.

Another concerning effect of a polar vortex breakdown is drier weather at a time the UK and much of Europe remains in a drought.

This is despite El Niño bringing severe flooding to many parts of the continent in September.

Energy security is also a going concern, with Europe’s gas reserves at 72.4% at the start of winter – the lowest this figure has been since it was first recorded in 2011.

Fuel has become a major economic issue across Europe, with supply exacerbated by the US-Iran war.

Scientists are also monitoring the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, a system of currents which carries warmer water further north, amid signs it may be starting to weaken.

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