Is a fifth heatwave coming to UK this year?

The UK has already suffered under four heatwaves this year – but is a fifth one on the way?

May and June saw heat records smashed, while two heatwaves in July meant Brits got little respite from the hot weather.

Temperatures remained high at the start of August before dropping this week, but forecasters have warned we could be set for yet another ‘very warm or hot’ spell before the summer is over.

While experts have said it is ‘too early’ to confirm whether a fifth heatwave

Sky News meteorologist Dr Christopher England said: ‘It will be cooler over the next few days, but long-range forecasts suggest that pressure may well build in the south again next week, allowing the return of hot weather.

‘It’s far too early for any detail, however, with different forecast models giving very different outcomes, but temperatures are likely to be higher than average for many, and it may well turn hot in the south.’

The Met Office backs up this prediction in its long-range forecast, and adds the south and east of the country has a ‘greater chance of thundery interludes’ over the next few days.

Dry, barren conditions gripped the UK for much of July and have carried on into August, and despite the increased likelihood of storms, rainfall is likely to be ‘quite variable’ and ‘relatively little’.

The forecast said: ‘For the most part, temperatures look to remain above average, especially in the south, and perhaps turning very warm or hot.’

Rain is forecast for northern England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland, but the rest of England is due to remain dry.

This year’s extreme heat led to more than 2,700 excess deaths in May and June alone.

Dry conditions have also caused drought across the country. Last month was the driest July in England and Wales since records began, causing wildfires nationwide.

What is a heatwave?

It might sound obvious – a heatwave is when the weather is warmer than usual, right?

Technically, yes – but that’s not the whole story.

According to the Met Office, ‘a heatwave is an extended period of hot weather relative to the expected conditions of the area at that time of year’. This can be accompanied by high humidity.

To officially be in a heatwave, a location must record ‘a period of at least three consecutive days with daily maximum temperatures meeting or exceeding the heatwave temperature threshold’.

This threshold varies across the country – in London and the surrounding counties it’s 28C, but it can be as low as 25C in places that are typically cooler.

Whether or not the upcoming warm spell will meet these criteria remains to be seen.