Dollar 4-month low, gold hits $5,000 is political risk vote

The dollar’s slide to a four-month low and gold’s surge above $5,000 a troy ounce mark a decisive shift in how global investors price political risk, asserts the CEO of financial advisory giant deVere Group.

The comments from Nigel Green come as the US dollar plunged to a four-month low on Monday and gold surged above $5,000 a troy ounce for the first time amid speculation over potential joint US-Japan action to support the yen piled further pressure on the greenback.

“Markets are reacting to speculation over potential joint US-Japan currency intervention, growing fiscal uncertainty, and geopolitical instability, triggering a rotation away from the dollar and into hard assets,” he explains.

“Investors are voting with capital. Gold breaking $5,000 and the dollar weakening at the same time signal a reassessment of US political and policy risk. Markets treat political stability as a macro variable now.”

The yen’s jump to around ¥153 per dollar, driven by expectations of coordinated intervention, adds to pressure on the greenback.

There are also legitimate concerns over a potential US government shutdown and recent geopolitical tensions as drivers of the dollar’s weakness.

“The assumption that the dollar automatically strengthens during periods of uncertainty is being challenged,” Nigel Green notes

“Policy unpredictability, fiscal pressures, and geopolitical shocks are pushing investors to diversify reserves and portfolios away from dollar concentration.”

Gold’s rally reflects demand for assets that sit outside political systems. Unlike currencies and sovereign bonds, gold carries no counterparty or fiscal risk, making it a preferred hedge when investors question policy credibility.

“Gold is moving from a tail-risk hedge to a core macro asset. Central banks have been accumulating gold at record levels, and private investors are following.

“This is part of a broader transition toward a multipolar reserve framework.”

Speculation that Washington could tolerate or encourage a weaker dollar to support exports and industrial policy adds a new dimension to currency markets. Government intervention in FX markets would mark a shift toward more explicit currency management among major economies.

“If policy signals point toward a weaker dollar, volatility rises across FX, commodities, and equities,” says the deVere CEO.

“Currency policy is becoming an extension of industrial strategy, and investors are adjusting portfolios accordingly.”

The broader trend is a gradual shift from dollar unipolarity to a more diversified global reserve system. Trade settlement in local currencies, gold accumulation by central banks, and increased regional financial arrangements all point toward a multipolar currency environment.

“The dollar remains dominant, but dominance is more contested and more politicized,” comments Nigel Green.

“Investors are hedging against concentration risk in the global, multipolar monetary system.”

For markets, the implications are wide-ranging. A structurally weaker dollar could support commodities and emerging markets, while increasing volatility in currency and fixed income markets.

Equities linked to defense, energy infrastructure, AI and tech supply chains, and industrial policy themes could see sustained investor interest as governments reshape economic strategy.

“The next decade will reward portfolios built for fragmentation. Geopolitics is no longer a background factor. It is a primary driver of asset allocation.”

He concludes: “Markets are signalling that political credibility carries a price.

“Gold at $5,000 and a tanking dollar reflect a reassessment of risk, and savvy investors are positioning for a world where monetary dominance is shared rather than assumed.”

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