This week we continue putting the editorial first.
We also start with a statement; “Immigration isn’t the issue”, it is politicians afraid of the truth and unable to create hope. If people’s perception is that everything is broken that then becomes their reality.
Going further, immigration isn’t a problem it’s a solution.
‘If people’s perception is that everything is broken that then becomes their reality’
Take Villamalea, a town of 4,200 people in central Spain.
In recent decades, migrants from across the globe had been attracted to Villamalea for the many jobs on offer.
The steady supply of labor had helped turn the town into an agricultural heavyweight – C..70% of the mushrooms sold in Spain come from here.
Cllr Núñez Pérez’s of the People’s party, said: “We didn’t even debate it, we were all onboard right away. There’s a lot of work to be done here. And there could be even more – the problem for these companies is that they can’t find enough people to work.”
In August, the president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, said gross domestic output in Germany would have been about 6% lower in 2019 if it hadn’t been for foreign workers. The picture was similar across the eurozone, she said. “Although they represented only around 9% of the total labor force in 2022, foreign workers have accounted for half of its growth over the past three years.”
In Spain, where the Socialist prime minister has insisted that migration is an opportunity, a surge in arrivals has helped to make the country a bright spot among Europe’s plodding economies.
Of late, even some of the most ardent critics of immigration have conceded its necessity; in June Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, the far-right leader who has long called irregular migrants a threat to Europe’s future, said her government would issue nearly 500,000 new work visas for non-EU nationals in the coming years, in addition to the 450,000 handed out since she took power.
Lyrically, we start with the Jams “Eton Rifles”, a song which critiques the privileged elite, symbolizing the class divide. We end with the ‘Stones and “You Can’t Always Get What You Want”, because, well….you can’t. Enjoy, Philip.
@coldwarsteve
“We came out of it naturally the worst
Beaten and bloody and I was sick down my shirt”
Much is made of how the UK is finished, in decline, with “broken” being a favourite term. Whilst, it is hard to argue with the sentiment, this is little more than a headline without any substance, it only tells a part of the story.
Typically, headline writers look for the sensational; the UK not doing terribly well, lacks the impact of “Broken Britain”.
Selling newspapers, or in todays digital age, clicks, is only a part of the story. Much of the “popular” media, such as the Mail, Telegraph, Times, Express and Sun, along with the TV channel GB News, actively dislike the color of the government and want to see it fail.
Their preference would be for a right-wing government, ideally Conservative, but given that they are comatose, the hard-right Reform are their new darlings.
Very clearly the country has deep-seated problems, but those are overlooked in favour of problems that better fit both the media and the rights narrative.
Aside from the ongoing rubbishing of labor’s economic management, with headlines such as “labor can’t mange money”, and “tax and spend”, the more recent obsession can be summed-up as “foreigners”; firstly, the EU, and then immigrants.
‘the more recent obsession can be summed-up as “foreigners”; firstly, the EU, and then immigrants’
The debate today, centres on immigration, to the point where the answer is immigration, what’s the question.
Data shows that the immigration has been distorted, perhaps deliberately, to suit the required narrative. Research found that 84% of frequent GB News viewers believe new migration has increased, compared with 71% of ITV frequent viewers, 62% for BBC viewers and 51% of the Channel 4 audience.
The correct answer is that net migration almost halved to 431,000 last year.
However, the right are never one to let the truth get in the way of a good story, the impact of which can be quite devastating.
I was interested to read of a lady from Mosely, a suburb of Birmingham, who, 3-yrs ago, received a leaflet which read: “White Britons are already a minority in London … it is clear that if these trends continue white people will become a minority in Britain”. It went on to blame NHS waiting lists, a shortage of social housing and even traffic on “the rising population”.
Along with her neighbors, she decided to fight back with their own words by creating a poster with the message: “Brummies united against racism and hate crime”. They were placed in the windows of homes all along the street.
The campaign continued to grow and last year was endorsed by Birmingham city council.
The campaign also hopes to spread beyond the city, with activists in Worcester seeking to mobilise a similar, poster-led initiative. Like Birmingham, the city has recently had a number of racist incidents.
‘Leaving the EU has created no material benefits, save to renew a few flag wavers sense of British exceptionalism. What is has done is make us irrelevant on the international stage’
Leaving the EU has created no material benefits, save to renew a few flag wavers sense of British exceptionalism. What is has done is make us irrelevant on the international stage. As a significant part of the EU, the worlds largest trading bloc, we had a voice.
Today, whilst the PM still flies around, it is just grandstanding.
The futility of which was highlighted this week as Trump, wreathed in glory, talked of the Gaza peace. There was Starmer standing behind him with his hand raised. Trump called him to the stage, making him think he was going to speak.
Starmer approached the podium. “It’s nice that you’re here,” Trump said, then sent him back, offending Starmer. Oh dear…..
The only thing worse than being globally insignificant is not realising you are. But then, we aren’t good are recognising issues, we seem to prefer hiding behind delusions and finding someone or something to blame.
‘The only thing worse than being globally insignificant is not realising you are’
Fighting two world wars in 30-yrs, together with the costs of Empire, by and large bankrupted us.
Since then, governments of both Conservative and labor has served up similar, dismal fare. labor favoured more government intervention and welfare, the Conservatives less of both.
Thatcherism was different, there were some good ideas that were badly executed. Overall, her lasting legacies are our aversion to tax, the cult of homeownership, and kickstarting inequality.
Thatcherism is something we have covered numerous time since January 2022 and “Let them eat cake”, however its pernicious influence still dominates our thinking.
Firstly, the housing crisis; her policy of encouraging home-ownership saw swathes of council properties sold at deep discounts, destroying the councils’ asset base and. The failure to replenish this housing stock, alongside bad planning, has led to shortage of properties, meaning that, for a majority of the younger generation, home ownership is a dream, leaving them paying sky high rents, which take-up a disproportionate amount of peoples incomes. The knock-on effect is that many can’t afford to start a family which is distorting the country’s demographics, resulting in an aging population.
As a result, we have a generational divide of elderly haves and younger have nots.
‘Fighting two world wars in 30-yrs, together with the costs of Empire, by and large bankrupted us’
Economically, it was free markets which led directly to de-industrialisation which has created a north-south divide, and a series of left behind towns.
Within this, there was a deliberate policy targeting trade unions, with the simple objective of breaking them. Chief among those targeted were the miners and the NUM, against whom she won a pyric victory, destroying towns and communities, and setting workers’ rights back 50-yrs.
All our hopes and efforts went into the City, which created wealth for the few, and then required hundreds of billions to rescue the few when they got it wrong.
What was left of our industry has hardly covered itself in glory. There is little investment, especially from the private sector, and our productivity is a fraction of Europe or the US. When there are success stories such as Dyson, the entrepreneurs behind them head off to tax havens, blaming unfair and punitive government policies for disincentivising them to stay.
The net result is that most big British brands are now owned by American private equity.
Privatisation was the other big policy, the aim was to encourage share ownership, unfortunately most private investors cashed out quickly.
‘most big British brands are now owned by American private equity’
The great privatisation sell-off of the state assets and infrastructure left the few remaining shareholders rich, but a nation suffering chronic underinvestment in railways, water & sewerage and fractured energy supply.
Inflation and the cost-of-living are directly linked, which makes this weeks analysis from the IMF so concerning.
According to the fund’s latest World Economic Outlook, UK inflation is on course to average 3.4% this year, up from its previous estimate of 3.2%, and then slow slightly to 2.5% next year, up from its old prediction of 2.3%.
Already, water bills are forecast to rise again next year, on top of the energy price cap that recently increased to £1,755 a year. For right-wing populists such as Reform, the ongoing cost-of-living crisis is a gift that keeps on giving, allowing them to blame declining living standards on migrants and perceived “outsiders”.
The starting point of the crisis was Putin’s war on Ukraine impacting energy prices linked. This, however doesn’t tell the whole story. The privatisation of much of our economy amplifies the effects of inflation, causing prices to spiral upwards, as these external shocks hit, which translates into people paying higher prices here than those elsewhere. Basically, our essential services, such as energy, housing and transport, have become opportunities for profit extraction.
‘For right-wing populists such as Reform, the ongoing cost-of-living crisis is a gift that keeps on giving’
Analysis from the thinktank Common Wealth, found that 25% of the typical energy bill in 2024 was profit, equivalent to every household paying £416 a year so other people can grow rich.
The water industry is no different, with C. 33% of the average bill funding shareholder dividends and interest payments.
In the railways over 100% of its post-tax profits are distributed to shareholders, whilst the majority of the industry’s income comes from government subsidies.
Politically, the preferred option is to perpetuate the story that the cost-of-living crisis, based on market forces and geopolitics, whereas, the truth is that a generous proportion of it is the result of privatisation, which decided how the country organized the provision of basic necessities, resulting in households paying a vast “privatisation premium” for essential services.
In “Now I Know We Have Been Cheated”, I talked about ““Analysis reveals ‘privatisation premium’ of £250 per household per year paid to owners of water, rail, bus, energy and mail services since 2010.”
Privatisation is little more than a “gigantic river that siphons wealth away from working people and towards investors.”
For consumers, it is another tax, perhaps the ultimate stealth tax; it is unavoidable as the underlying services are essential to everyday life. There is another, equally hidden “tax”, as, increased taxes are often necessary to subsidise the private providers of essential services.
Both of these are regressive, impacting most on those with the least.
Regulators are, if I’m being charitable, toothless.
‘Privatisation is little more than a “gigantic river that siphons wealth away from working people and towards investors’
Ofgem seems to favour providers over consumers, showing great reluctance to correct the billions of excess profits for fear that investors might take flight.
The new funders of Thames Water, knowing that the government is unwilling to nationalise the business, handed the government an ultimatum: relax environmental standards for 15 years, or we will walk away and the whole company will collapse.
All of these businesses belong in the public sector, being managed for the public benefit rather than private extraction.
The loss of the privatisation premium will leave consumers with more disposable income. Also, as publicly owned entities they would drop out of the inflation statistics, reducing inflation, thus giving the Bank more scope to cut interest rates.
Whilst there might be the need to increase taxes to rejuvenate the hopelessly neglected infrastructure of these business, as a direct tax it would be progressive, and fall “on the broadest shoulders.”
As PM Starmer’s friend, the mayor of Manchester showed when he successfully returned the city’s bus services to public control, the average ticket price fell by 15%.
If labor really wants to take on Reform, correcting this wholly unfair privatisation premium, and redistributing income from companies and their shareholders back towards ordinary households, would be far more effective than copying their get tough on immigration stance.
On the subject of Reform, they are now realising that their Panglossian promise to deliver £90bn in tax cuts in their manifesto was rubbish, instead, if in government, their initial focus will be cutting public spending.
Reform’s deputy leader, Richard Tice, said key election pledges such as lifting the income tax threshold would be an “aspiration” and that once in government Reform would concentrate on cutting the civil service and scrapping net zero.
Party leader, Nigel Farage has previously said he expected to make £350bn worth of spending cuts over the course of the parliament – the equivalent of axing the whole schools budget every year or wiping out a third of NHS funding annually.
Tice said changes to regulations would make cost-cutting easier, saying: “We will change the obligations that are set down by the government because we will completely, boldly change the way that the government functions, the way the civil service functions.
“There are a whole range of things, frankly, that the government does at the moment that regulations provide that are a hindrance to productivity, a hindrance to growth.”
In summary, talk of our demise is being greatly exaggerated, mainly by right-wing politicians and their bigoted media talking the country down for their own ends.
They don’t have the answers, they don’t have any answers, only hate. If anyone doubts this, Brexit is your proof. A bunch of narrow-minded bigots, mainly older who cared more about themselves than their children and grandchildren.
The majority of voters don’t care about immigration, they want financial security for their family, a health service fit for purpose, decent education and equal opportunities for their children, public services to help them if they are unemployed and in their retirement, and streets that are clean and safe to walk through. They want to know that their taxes benefit them not rentiers owning the essential services.
‘voters don’t care about immigration, they want financial security for their family, a health service fit for purpose, decent education and equal opportunities for their children, public services to help them if they are unemployed and in their retirement, and streets that are clean and safe to walk through’
This is nirvana, it will take time. There is no magic answer after 45-yrs of the uncaring society, but, in the interim there needs to be hope. A government not afraid to tell the truth, and one that inspires positivity not negativity.
As with most things in-life you get what you pay for. Everyone wants something, be they individuals or businesses, but none want to pay.
A poll commissioned by Tax Associates shows we always choose to tax someone else. Their top four options were gambling, capital gains (only 0.5% pay), banks and VAT on private schools, all good but not nearly enough.
Britain is a lower-taxed nation than its neighbors, and it shows. “You don’t get owt for nowt …”
“You can’t always get what you want
But if you try sometime you’ll find
You get what you need”
Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.
Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s
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