- European travel stocks like Ryanair, TUI and easyJet often underperform during summer
- However these stocks historically deliver three times the returns of broader market in Q4
- Autumn offers investors a stronger entry point as company updates drive sentiment
Summer may be behind us, but retail investors still have an opportunity to benefit from travel stocks, according to new analysis from global trading and investing platform IG. In fact, autumn has historically been the best season to snap up these names, with European travel stocks delivering on average three times the returns of the broader market in Q4.
While travel companies see peak operational activity during summer, their share prices don’t always reflect that. IG’s analysis (see table below) shows European travel stocks tend to underperform the broader market during summer, only to rally strongly in autumn.
IG compiled a basket of ten well-known travel-related stocks – including airlines IAG, Ryanair, and easyJet, cruise operator Carnival, and hotel group Whitbread – covering 2005 to 2024 (with partial data for Wizz Air). From June to August, the basket returned an average of -0.89%, underperforming both the FTSE 350 (-0.04%) and Stoxx 600 (-0.03%).
However, the picture brightens dramatically in Q4 (October–December). Travel stocks posted an average return of 3.32%, compared to 0.97% for the FTSE 350 and 0.90% for the Stoxx 600 – more than tripling the benchmark indices.
Standout stocks
Among the ten companies in IG’s travel basket, easyJet and Lufthansa show particularly strong seasonality. Both saw average Q4 gains of 4.55% and 4.16%, respectively, despite weak summer performances – easyJet averaged -0.90% and Lufthansa fell -1.75% in summer.
TUI was another notable laggard during the summer, averaging -2.54%, but rebounded with a 2.95% average gain in Q4, suggesting the market waits for confirmation before rewarding the stock.
Interestingly, Wizz Air, with eight years of data, bucked the broader summer trend with a 0.68% return June-August, but still peaked in Q4 with an average gain of 4.81%, the highest in the basket.
Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at IG, said: “It’s natural for investors to think that summer is a good time to look at travel stocks, but the data tells a different story. Markets usually respond in autumn, when companies release results and update on future bookings, giving investors the clearest picture and historically the strongest returns. While we’d never advise trying to time the market, for those considering a portfolio reshuffle, autumn has typically been a great entry point for travel stocks, offering a little consolation for anyone suffering from the end-of-summer blues.”
Table showing seasonal effect on performance of travel stocks over 20 years
| Stock/Index | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
| Ryanair | 0.68% | 0.13% | 0.19% | 3.83% |
| IAG | 0.39% | -2.09% | 1.78% | 3.93% |
| easyJet | 1.15% | -1.57% | 0.87% | 4.55% |
| TUI | -1.54% | -0.65% | -0.51% | 2.95% |
| Lufthansa | 0.41% | -2.66% | 0.05% | 4.16% |
| Accor | 1.26% | -0.36% | 0.40% | 1.39% |
| Carnival | -1.26% | -0.78% | 1.10% | 2.61% |
| Air France | 0.37% | -1.78% | -2.73% | 2.59% |
| Wizz Air* | -1.20% | 2.20% | 3.06% | 4.81% |
| Whitbread | 0.44% | -0.64% | 1.58% | 2.40% |
| Collective average of travel basket | 0.07% | -0.82% | 0.58% | 3.32% |
| FTSE 350 | -0.16% | 0.26% | 0.53% | 0.97% |
| Stoxx 600 | 0.17% | 0.16% | 0.58% | 0.90% |
Data was taken from Bloomberg covering the years 2005 – 2024. Only 8 years data for Wizz Air.
About this data
This trend data is based on the trading activity of all UK-based IG clients and is updated daily.
The post Keep that summer spirit alive: Analysis shows why Autumn is the best time to snap up travel stocks appeared first on USNewsRank.
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