Mr Brightside: Tick tock, tick tock… 

“Yeah, time is on my side, yes it is 

Time is on my side, yes it is” 

It really does feel like the political classes have collectively gone on holiday post the election

 
What we have seen is labor prepping us for some tax rises and spending cut. Sir Kier has said his government has inherited “not just an economic black hole but a societal black hole”, adding that “this is why we have to take action and do things differently. Part of that is being honest with people about the choices we face. And how tough this will be.” 

Already signs of stress are appearing. Before her first budget 30 October, chancellor Reeves is facing calls to perform a U-turn, and the threat of rebellion, over her recent announcement to limit the winter fuel payment to only the poorest pensioners. 

This became ever more prevalent last week after the energy ­regulator announced that gas and electricity prices would be rising by 10% this winter. 

Following this, party grandee Harriet Harman gently hinted that the party might have to shift its position and adopt “a different cut-off point” for winter fuel payments. 

Many labor MPs are furious that a policy to restrict winter fuel payments was announced shortly before the pricing decision by the energy regulator, which had been known about and predicted for many months. One labor MP said the worry was that “old people will get ill and will die”, adding: “Old people won’t put on the heating – they don’t like getting into debt. It is not what they do. We have to move on this.” 
 

“old people will get ill and will die”

 
The PM continues to argue that sacrifices now are the only way to get long-term benefits for the whole of society: “I won’t shy away from making unpopular decisions now if it’s the right thing for the country in the long term. That’s what a government of service means.” 

We are continually told this is the cost of a profligate end to 14-yrs of Tory misery, but there will come a time when that no longer washes. 

One subject that hasn’t gone away, but hasn’t explicitly dominated the headlines is immigration.  

Whilst Rwanda has thankfully been consigned to history, Yvette Cooper, the home secretary, has revisited Conservative plans, first announced in 2022, to reopen two defunct immigration detention centres. In addition, she announced the recruitment of 100 new intelligence officers to target people-smuggling gangs, with the intention of disrupting the traffic of small boats in the Channel. 

The opposition continue with the narrative that labor is going soft on small boats, while refugee charities warn that the new government is perpetuating a punitive narrative that vilifies vulnerable people.  

This sums up the nature of the challenge; there is unlikely to be a solution that pleases everyone. The people-smugglers are servicing demand, possibly because there is no safe legal routes for refugees to reach the UK. Deporting those who have no right to be in Britain is a necessary function of the state, but this should be done within humanitarian confines. 

As is often the case, the silent majority are open-minded, accepting the need for fair rules, properly enforced, operated in a spirit of openness to the outside world and compassion for people fleeing conflict and persecution. 

Before there can be a more civilised debate about immigration we needs to recognize that the subject is a series of overlapping issues; security and criminal justice in policing the border, moral and diplomatic issues based on our treaty obligations regarding refugees. In addition, there are economic challenge regarding skills shortages, the need to import labor in vital sectors, the benefit that overseas students can bring to universities. 

Immigration continues to be a large part of what Brexiters expected when they voted “Leave”. As with everything else that was expected from Brexit all that has been achieved is disappointment and self-sacrifice on the altar of nationalism. 
 

‘As with everything else that was expected from Brexit all that has been achieved is disappointment and self-sacrifice on the altar of nationalism’

 
This week, in a press conference alongside Olaf Scholz, PM Starmer said he was “delighted” to be back in Germany “at this moment of opportunity for our two countries”, as he announced a new UK-Germany treaty, describing it as a “once in a generation chance to deliver for working people in Britain and in Germany”. 

Starmer continued, saying: “A new agreement, a testament to the depth and potential of our relationship. With deeper links on science, technology, development, people, business [and] culture. A boost to our trading relations. 

“Germany, of course already the UK’s second largest trading partner in the world, and through that a chance to create jobs here and in the United Kingdom. And to deliver that most precious of goods for both of our countries: economic growth.” 

This column was born out of Brexit, which in itself was a series of lies and delusion. Now we can add to the list of failings that of our European summer holidays as rules changes within the EU make travelling more difficult.  
 

‘Now we can add to the list of failings that of our European summer holidays as rules changes within the EU make travelling more difficult’

 
The first change is the EU’s new entry/exit system that will replace the current stamping of UK passports in November. This electronic system will require most non-EU travellers (including the British) to most European countries to have their photo and fingerprints checked along with their passports. The second change is the EU’s prior authorisation travel system (Etias), which is expected to start in the first half of 2025. This will require most non-EU visitors (again including the British) to complete the relevant forms online before travelling, at the cost of €7 for each three-year Etias authorisation. 

Whilst both the UK and US have similar schemes for visitors, it is highly likely that the introductory months will at best cause some unforeseen queues and delays, and at worst confusion. 

Whilst labor are more likely to welcome better relations with the EU, and they seem  better disposed towards the Starmer government than to its predecessors who constantly seemed to searching for conflicts. However, any compromises offered to the UK will have implications for other non-EU countries such as Albania and Serbia, and Brussels will also need to be confident that a future Conservative government will not throw aside agreements made by labor. 

In addition to travel, there have been reports that we want to ease freedom of movement controls to allow young Europeans to work and live in the UK prove to be accurate.  
 

‘The new government has been proactive and settled the disputes, leading to claims that they are in the unions pockets’

 
The ball is very much in our court when it comes to relations with the EU. To restore something like a working relationship could involve us having to make considerable concessions, which is bound to trigger indignation from the usual quarters.  

This is something where the government needs to grasp the initiative, we have an overwhelming national interest in a closer and more harmonious relationship with Europe.  

Another area that is giving the Tories indigestion is public sector pay rises. Their policy was simply to turn a blind eye to the ongoing strikes and hope the issue went away; it didn’t. The new government has been proactive and settled the disputes, leading to claims that they are in the unions pockets. 

Leadership hopeful, James Cleverly asked, “how much longer will Keir Starmer sell influence like this?” Robert Jenrick , his fellow leadership contender claimed Aslef had “humiliated the government”. 

I tackled this in last week’s article, “Is There Light at the End of the Tunnel?” 

Now Richard Hyman, an emeritus professor of industrial relations at the London School of Economics, who has been examining labor-union relations since the 1970s, said the idea of a party at the whim of union demands was inaccurate. 
 

‘He has goodwill in the bank, and the excuse of Tory mismanagement’

 
It was, he said, too early to tell how Starmer’s government would deal with unions, especially before details emerged on the legislation to increase employment rights. 

“Clearly, it looks more favourable – with reservations – to the trade union agenda than it ever was under the Conservatives, and probably than it ever was under Blair”. 

However, he added, whatever the claims about sinister “paymasters”, unions were likely to have little choice but to accept whatever emerged: “To a large degree that’s probably the case. The unions have their own priorities, and are looking for some sort of response from a labor government. The problem for them, as it always has been, is that they’ve got nowhere else to go.” 

Starmer promised us “change”. He has goodwill in the bank, and the excuse of Tory mismanagement, this  buys him time while new ministers are excused for the dismal state of things that can’t reasonably be called their fault. 
 

‘How long can he go on enjoying the benefit of the doubt?’

 
The real question is for how long? How long can he go on enjoying the benefit of the doubt?  

This week told us that the mess his government inherited will take at least a decade to fix. He told us that only after taking power was the full scale of the Tories negligence revealed, and as a result, things would get worse before they got better. 

The Tories are struggling to defend their legacy, instead they are attempting to undermine the integrity of their successors, citing senior civil service appointments that have gone to figures with records of partisan allegiance to labor and links to party donations.  

Whilst Downing Street insists that no rules have been broken and no protocols subverted, and that there can be no comparison with Johnson-era scandals, voters are primed to think all politicians are corrupt.  

I have already talked about the backlash over means test winter fuel payments. Alienating pensioners is always a perilous move and curtailing a universal entitlement was bound to foment anxiety among labor MPs.  
 

‘voters are primed to think all politicians are corrupt’

 
This week’s speech was a foretaste of how the prime minister intends to ride out such storms. He is betting on the public having greater reserves of understanding for the difficulty of the task ahead than they are credited with by MPs, left and right, who crave quick-fix solutions or pretend that pain can be swerved. 

Starmer’s confidence on this point is bolstered by his experience on the campaign trail, observing that audiences responded best to messages with the least bravado. He would get the most applause for admitting he had “no magic wand” to deal with the country’s ills. The Tory attachment to gimmicks, the conflation of policy and slogan, the flimsy manifesto, were not just unconvincing but actively insulted the intelligence of people who weren’t convinced. 

But there is no guarantee that voters who ostensibly give permission for unpalatable governing choices will then reward the leader who doles out meagre, bitter rations. In an age of entrenched scepticism about politics, there has to be a prompt downpayment of delivery before trust will be extended through whatever turbulence is to come. 
 

‘But the official opposition is not the prime minister’s main adversary. For now, he is racing the clock’

 
Here Starmer is caught in a catch-22. He must show some rapid improvement in the quality of government in order to be trusted with the task of making improvements that cannot be done rapidly. 

Recognising this conundrum is one reason for settling public sector pay disputes without fuss. It was wholly predictable that Conservatives would denounce the move as labor falling into a routine of capitulation to its union paymasters, presaging a retro-1970s spiral into industrial strife. Absorbing that political attack, which resonates with a dwindling pool of people, was judged a price worth paying for the tangible benefit of having more commuters on the move and fewer hospital appointments cancelled. 

Ending strikes was one of very few immediately operable levers to pull with a direct effect of getting Britain working better under labor. 

After that, it is all slower and harder. Starmer can remind people from time to time that his inheritance was grim, but at some point that starts to sound like an excuse for failure. If he is lucky, the Conservatives will help renew labor’s license to clear up a Tory mess by choosing an unrepentant leader who can’t offer a sincere account of why the party deserved to be defeated. Currently, all of the candidates fit that template. 

But the official opposition is not the prime minister’s main adversary. For now, he is racing the clock. He has promised tangible change to voters whose readiness to believe him will degrade while they experience life as more of the same. And there is no way of knowing how much time he has. There is no measuring patience. You only find out how much there was once it has gone. 

“Time, he’s waiting in the wings 

He speaks of senseless things 

His script is you and me, boy” 

@coldwarsteve
 

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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