The Great AI Reckoning is beginning for investors — profit checks are coming

An AI reckoning is set to define investing in 2026 and it starts now, warns the CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.

The warning from Nigel Green of deVere Group comes as artificial intelligence names slid again in premarket trading on Friday, extending losses into a third consecutive session.

Oracle was down 1.3%, Nvidia and Micron each fell 0.9%, and CoreWeave dropped 1.4% in early trading.

The weakness followed a sharp sell-off the previous day, when Oracle ended the session roughly 11% lower after revenue missed expectations. The damage spread across the AI complex even as broader Wall Street pushed higher, with both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 closing at fresh records while the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.26%.

Nigel Green, Chief Executive of deVere Group, says: “The divergence marks the beginning of a defining shift that will shape investor behavior well beyond next year.

“Markets are drawing a clear line. AI has driven equity performance for two years, but 2026 will be about verification. Investors are now demanding more evidence that vast spending programmes translate into durable earnings.

“The tolerance for assumption has ended.”

The recent sell-off highlights how quickly sentiment can change when expectations are not met. Oracle’s earnings miss and the scale of its investment commitments have forced investors to reassess how long they are willing to wait for returns.

The reaction has rippled through AI-linked stocks, reinforcing a broader rotation out of technology and into other areas of the market that currently offer clearer visibility on cash flows.

“What we’re seeing is not rejection of AI,” explains the deVere chief executive.

“It’s a repricing of certainty. Capital is moving toward businesses where revenues, margins and balance sheets are easier to forecast. AI leaders are now being judged on execution rather than ambition.”

This recalibration comes at a critical moment for the sector. After years in which enthusiasm alone could support premium valuations, the focus is narrowing to operational discipline and profitability.

“Investors are no longer prepared to fund open-ended capital expenditure without a convincing timeline for returns.

“The question investors are asking has changed. It’s no longer how big AI can become. It is how efficiently companies can convert infrastructure, data and computers into profit. Those that cannot articulate that pathway will struggle to justify their valuations in 2026.”

The split is already evident within large technology names. Some firms are demonstrating tighter control over spending and clearer links between AI deployment and earnings growth.

Others are encountering resistance as shareholders push back against rising costs and uncertain payoff periods. The result is growing dispersion within the sector, even as headline indices continue to reach new highs.

“This is why the market reaction matters,” Nigel Green notes.

“When the Dow and S&P 500 are hitting records while AI stocks are falling, it tells you investors are making deliberate choices. Concentration risk is being reassessed, and selectivity is becoming decisive.”

The implications extend beyond individual earnings reports. AI has become central to corporate strategy across industries, but the investment environment is becoming less forgiving. Boards and executives are under pressure to show restraint, prioritisation and measurable outcomes.

“2026 will reward companies that show control.

“Spending must align with revenue potential, growth plans must be credible, and profitability has to move in step with ambition. Markets will not accept divergence for long.”

Policy and geopolitical considerations are adding further scrutiny. With President Donald Trump shaping the current US policy agenda, export controls, domestic supply-chain priorities, and national security considerations are influencing how companies plan and invest.

These factors are increasingly reflected in valuations and forward guidance.

“Investors are examining strategy through a wider lens,” says Green. “They are looking at how companies manage geopolitical constraints alongside commercial goals. The ability to adapt investment plans without sacrificing profitability will be essential.”

He concludes: “AI remains transformative, but the market is maturing.”

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