The Times They are a Changin’: Will Greenland Be Our Sudetenland #2? 

“Got in a little hometown jam
So they put a rifle in my hand
Sent me off to a foreign land
To go and kill the yellow man” 

This is the concluding part of Will Greenland Be Our Sudetenland? Part 2 consider the global impact of those actions, and how America’s previous allies might respond. 

We start with Trump’s rambling, invective-laden speech this week at the World Economic Forum in Davos, where he continued  to step-up his demand to annex Greenland. He did say the US would not use force to seize it saying: “I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force. All the US is asking for is a place called Greenland. You can say yes, and we will be very appreciative. Or you can say no and we will remember.” 

His comment is notable for the veiled threat at the end! 

Other highlights from his speech, included, claims to have delivered a historic economic upturn at home. He reeled off a list of what he said were US economic achievements over the last year, including what he called “virtually no inflation”, falling petrol prices, and rapid economic growth. 

Europe, needless to say was a target, as the rejected the idea of what he called the “new green scam”, of switching from fossil fuels to clean energy. Trump continued, saying: “I want Europe to do great, I want UK to do great; they’re sitting on one of the greatest energy sources in the world and they don’t use it. There are windmills all over Europe, there are windmills all over the place, and they are losers.” 

He was, also, openly nationalist rhetoric, accusing Europe of destroying itself through “socially disruptive migration”, and saying that the “west cannot mass import foreign cultures, which have failed to ever build a successful society of their own”. 

“You can say yes, and we will be very appreciative. Or you can say no and we will remember.” 

Whilst being the president of the richest, most powerful nation on earth, Trump’s appearance at the Forum is odd, given that he dislikes multilateral organisations, and is a protectionist, not a free trader.  

Subjects that the forum champions such as the climate crisis is a hoax and he has no time for the woke capitalism that Davos has been keen to promote, with its focus on gender equality and ethical investment. Trump is about power plays not dialog. 

Not mentioned, but always in his sights is NATO. Whilst he is continually accused of seeking to destroy it, there is the need to consider that there are two sides to every story. 

In the post-WW2 world, the US bankrolled Europe’s recovery with the Marshall Plan, and were the cornerstone of NATO which protected Europe. 

To an extent, this US largesse made Europe lazy and complacent, able to fund welfare programmes and consumer booms through reduced defense spending and US money. 

With US government debt now C.125% of GDP that largesse is seen as unsustainable. US taxpayers, who themselves, are struggling, want to see their needs put first, and understandably so. 

On the flip side of this, by centring attention on Europe, the US ensured that, if there was a WW3 with Russia, much of it would be fought there. As a result, US foreign policy focussed on keeping communist parties out-of-power in western Europe, especially in Italy, which was regarded as Europe’s soft underbelly, and was heavily funded by the US to ensure the continuation of friendly governments. There is, of course the accusations, that this funding added to the “years of lead” (anni di piombo) and incidents such as the Moro kidnapping.  

In many ways, Trump’s policy of America first isn’t new, it’s been the case since 1945, possibly longer. It could be said that his lack of pretense about caring for other countries is refreshing when compared to his predecessors who were more opaque in their words and deeds. 

‘his lack of pretense about caring for other countries is refreshing when compared to his predecessors who were more opaque in their words and deeds’

Trump’s invasion Venezuela, which has been followed by threats against Cuba, Colombia, and Greenland, not only undermine both domestic and international law, they threaten what we mean by civilisation. 

From a moral perspective, civilised society is there to prevent the strong from attacking and exploiting the weak, the survival of the fittest.  

This principle lies at the centre of America’s founding documents – the Declaration of Independence, the constitution and the Bill of Rights. It’s also the core of the postwar international order championed by the US, including the UN charter – emphasizing multilateralism, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. 

Domestically, he is continuing to consolidate authoritarian powers and to rearrange the US into a formal white nationalist autocracy where power is defined by displays of violent domination by the immigration agents and those who command them. 

Trump’s America is a living example of how a society and world has grown vastly more unequal. Political and economic power are more concentrated than ever before, enabling the new elite to exploit the weaker. 

‘Trump’s America is a living example of how a society and world has grown vastly more unequal’

Trump’s second terms has produced bountiful results for the U.S. billionaire class. The richest 15 billionaires, all with assets of more than $100 billion, saw their combined wealth surge by more than 30 percent to $3.1 trillion. That’s nearly double the S&P 500’s 16.4 percent growth over the course of last year. 

“The outsized influence that the superrich have over our politicians, economies and media has deepened inequality and led us far off track on tackling poverty,” said Oxfam International Executive Director Amitabh Behar. 

Oxfam also estimated that billionaires are 4,000 times more likely to hold political office than common citizens and cited a World Values Survey of 66 countries, which found that almost half of all people polled say the rich often buy elections in their country. 

At present, Trump seems content to allow others of his ilk such  as China and Russia to coexist alongside of the US, but, as we have seen with China, this is an uneasy relationship . 

What this means is that, for the first-time in hundreds of years, the world faces a clear threat from a country that is all-powerful. In 1939, Nazi Germany was similar, but never attained the economic and military might that Trump’s has. 

In Europe, politicians have been slow to comment on the threat, but there are signs that the reality is dawning on them. 

The opinions of Europeans can be seen in a poll conducted last November in 21 countries for the European Council on Foreign Relations, in partnership with our Europe in a Changing World research project at the University of Oxford. 

‘for the first-time in hundreds of years, the world faces a clear threat from a country that is all-powerful’

Less than 20% of continental Europeans (taking an average of the 10 EU countries surveyed) and 25% of  Britons now see the US as an ally. In Ukraine, the figure is down to 18%. We [Europeans] do still see the US as “a necessary partner”, but not as an ally. 

Further afield, 43% of Chinese respondents see American and European approaches as the same or similar (i.e. there’s a single west), while a clear majority thinks they are different.  

Interestingly, almost 50% of Europeans don’t think the EU can deal on equal terms with global powers such as the US and China.  

But unchecked and unchallenged, “America first” expansionism is becoming a geopolitical menace in its own right. 

Bronwen Maddox, the director of Chatham House, described Trump’s impulsiveness, taste for military action and rejection of international law as amounting to a revolution. She said US allies “must now contemplate what was unthinkable: to defend themselves against the US, in both trade and security”. 

As with other commentators Maddox saw this as the end of the post-WW2 era that was based on countries “sharing principles of individual liberty, intellectual and religious freedom, constitutional democracy and free trade”, which “have been the engine of their prosperity as well as the rationale for their global influence”. 

Turning to the UK government, Maddox like other’s understood the need for being both cautious and pragmatic but also accepted that there comes a point when you have to stand up and question what is happening:  

“The UK faces a huge dilemma, as does Europe. It wants two big things from America. One is trade and the other is help on defense, including support for Ukraine. The prime minister does not want to jeopardise those two. We have seen in so many ways how the Trump administration, including the president, can react very, very strongly to small things that people say.” 

Maddox, also saw that Trump’s challenges to our social medial laws was simply protecting the interests of the US tech giants. 

“America first” expansionism is becoming a geopolitical menace in its own right

At the heart of Trump’s US is his narcissism, seeing himself as a global emperor, supported by a military that no country can stand-up to, and certainly not alone. Perhaps, Europe, if it stood together, might make him think twice, a situation that is likely to be tested in Greenland sooner that we might wish. 

Europe could also benefit from the checks and balances offered by the US constitution, and, also the possibility that November’s mid-terms might see the Republican majority in the House of Representatives overturned. In theory, both could instantly curb Trump’s power. The problem, here is the word “theory”, there is the very real possibility that in practise Trump will simply ignore both. 

Talk of a new order is misplaced, what we are seeing is the reestablishment of the 1930s, where autocracy, the use of force, supported by xenophobic nationalism prevailed.  

Behind this, there is the radical, libertarianism of the Silicon Valley executives; pro-natalism, support for eugenics, perhaps even the replacement of democracy by CEO-led “monarchy” fusing with Maga nativism. 

America in now driven by coercive action where their support comes at a price, which is based on the requirements of their tech firms’ business interests. Within this is the NSS, which actively supports Europe’s far-right parties who are Trump’s European shock-troops, with the objective of fragmenting and destroying the EU institutions. 

In practice, this could see the US state department funding US embassies and other activities geared specifically towards promoting far-right parties.  A leaked strategy document suggests this will start in Austria, Hungary, Italy and Poland, who are viewed as good candidates to be “pulled away” from the EU. 

Whilst we are no longer part of the EU, we remain in Trump’s sites, and with Reform leading in the polls their leader Farage, a long-term Trump admirer puts us in-play with the four quoted above. 

Interestingly, Nigel Farage, During a panel at the World Economic Forum’s “America House”, said he had “no doubt” that the world would be safer if a “strong America” was in Greenland “because of the geopolitics of the high north, because of the retreating ice caps and because of the continued expansionism of Russian icebreakers, of Chinese investment”. 

Perhaps, realising that this put him out-of-step with public opinion, hedged his bets insisting that he still believed in the sovereignty of nation states. 

Supporting Trump’s overseas strategy are the powerful right-wing thinktanks whose funds can be funnelled to so-called government-organized NGOs, such as those established by Viktor Orbán’s regime in Hungary. The US thinktank the Heritage Foundation, architect of Project 2025, a far-right agenda for the Trump presidency, is reported to be actively seeking ties with European thinktanks. 

‘what we are seeing is the reestablishment of the 1930s, where autocracy, the use of force, supported by xenophobic nationalism prevailed’

There is a clear of interests between Silicon Valley and the White House, with the US tech billionaires bankrolling initiatives to advance nativist ideas in Europe, and weaken and divide the EU, such as Elon Musk’s use of X, to openly support the AfD party in Germany. 

The tech companies’ have a clear objective, undermining EU regulations, and their social media platforms allow for the distribution of nativist material. The algorithms of these thrive on extreme views, including those proffered by the far right.  

As the US administration merges threats to sovereignty with the promotion of far-right forces that are a threat to democracy, and pushes tech deregulation, Europe is left with few tools in its arsenal to address this challenge. 

Clearly there is a need to look further afield for allies to help counter the alternative order the US is creating. Options include Australia with its deposits of critical minerals essential for defense supply chains, Canada, Japan, South Korea whose defense industrial base supports European rearmament efforts, amongst other remaining liberal democracies.  

One of the more farsighted leaders is the Canadian PM, Mark Carney who, this week, in Davos, said: “The old order is not coming back. We should not mourn. Nostalgia is not a strategy.” 

He also clearly understands Trumpism, saying: “the strong do what they can, and the weak suffer what they must.” 

Commenting on the speech, Jack Cunningham, a professor of international relations at the University of Toronto, said: “Leaders in other western capitals have alluded to ‘dangerous departures’ Trump has taken from norms, but they always return to the possibility that he can be appeased or accommodated. Mr Carney has exposed that as simply inaccurate.”  

Cunnigham continued, saying: “The prime minister knows that Trump’s commitment and his words are essentially worthless. He can- and often does, go back on them on a whim. And so this is a position we are being forced into by growing American unreliability.” 

Carney, clearly looking to a future with an arm’s length relationship with the US, talked of his government’s recent trade mission to China, where he sought investment in Canada’s oil sector and scaled back tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, the latter of which signalled a break with US policy. 

He also laid our his vision of how Canada and other middle-power countries could navigate the tumultuous and unpredictable nature of global politics. 

“Middle powers must act together because if you are not at the table, you are on the menu. Great powers can afford to go it alone. They have the market size, the military capacity, the leverage to dictate terms,” Middle powers do not.” 

Trump clearly didn’t appreciate Carney’s comments, and, in his speech, claimed that Canada had been given “a lot of freebies” from the US. “Canada lives because of the US: remember that, Mark, next time you make your statements.” 

Trump’s belligerent bullying might well sow the seeds of his downfall. Bullying, and coercive diplomacy only works if people are afraid to resist. What we have seen from European leaders in recent days, suggests that they understand that bullies often back down when confronted – their power relies on fear.  

‘Trump’s belligerent bullying might well sow the seeds of his downfall’

In France, President Macron said “no amount of intimidation” will alter Europe’s position. Denmark has anchored the issue firmly inside Nato’s collective security. Even Italy’s PM, Giorgia Meloni, often viewed as Trump’s ally, called the tariff threat a “mistake.” 

Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on Europeans unless they acquiesce to his demand to “purchase” Greenland, shows that his trade policy isn’t about economic security, unfair trade or protecting American workers; his tariffs are a weapon to force nations to submit. 

Europe seems prepared to call Trump’s bluff. In response to his threats, the European parliament is now moving to pause ratification of the EU-US trade deal that European leaders were pressured by the US to accept. The EU runs trade policy, not individual capitals, as Britain found out during Brexit. Mr Trump can threaten governments; he cannot browbeat European institutions designed to withstand coercion. 

There is also the US national debt to consider, this currently exceeds $38tn (£28tn), with the country running a deficit of $1.78tn. 

As Deutsche Bank analyst George Saravelos, said on Sunday that “Europe owns Greenland, it also owns a lot of treasuries. For all its military and economic strength, the US has one key weakness: it relies on others to pay its bills via large external deficits. 

“Europe, on the other hand, is America’s largest lender: European countries own $8tn of US bonds and equities, almost twice as much as the rest of the world combined.” 

Could the next war be fought in the government debts markets? A buyers’ strike would probably push up America’s cost of borrowing, and lower the value of existing debt held by investors around the world. 

‘Could the next war be fought in the government debts markets?’

There are also signs that countries are now prepared to create their own rules-based system without the US. Canada’s trade deal with Beijing shows how middle powers shift when Washington becomes erratic.  

As this column has said since the early-days of Trump II; countries don’t have to fight the US, they don’t have to fall-out with them, they have to learn how to exist without the them. 

With his presidency being seen as a failure at home, there appears to be the need to be seen as strong and domineering overseas. This is often a measure borne out of desperation rather than strength. Trump has succeeded only in uniting many of his former allies against him. 

The EU and a united Europe are the way to see off Trumpism. He understands this, which is why he is so keen to dismantle the EU, as the saying goes “united we stand, divided we fall.”  

The more he resorts to bullying, the more the world will learn how to live without him. 

“Bullies don’t stop when they are asked to: they stop when they are forced to.”  

As LibDem leader, Ed Davey wrote: “Bullies don’t stop when they are asked to: they stop when they are forced to.”  

Trump’s coercive behavior is backfiring, with his former allies beginning to accept that the world has changed and moved on. Trump has  fractured America’s global alliances, treating his former allies with insults and disrespect.  

“The nations that made America great, are now actively signalling it’s over.” 

“Rendezvous on Champs-Elysees
Leave Paris in the morning with T-E-E” 

Lyrically, we start with “Born in the U.S.A.”, a MAGA favourite that shows how little they understand. This is a protest song about a disillusioned Vietnam veteran returning home to an America that has abandoned him, facing economic hardship, alienation, and lack of opportunity. Sound familiar? 

We end with Kraftwerk and “Trans Europe Express”, which became one of the most important pieces of electronic music ever made: its central motif became the spine of Afrika Bambaata’s “Planet Rock”; its Mitteleuropean chilliness was the model for those Brits in raincoats. But, what seems most appealing is its vision of a Europe open to all, where you can rendezvous on Champs-Élysées, go to a late-night cafe in Vienna, then return to Düsseldorf to meet David Bowie and Iggy Pop. But, not you, Donald! 

@coldwarsteve

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

Click on the link to see all Brexit Bulletins:

The post The Times They are a Changin’: Will Greenland Be Our Sudetenland #2?  appeared first on USNewsRank.