UK retail investors expect the FTSE 100 to outperform in 2026 as ‘home bias’ deepens, new data shows

• UK investor confidence grows as two-thirds (66%) of retail investors expect positive market returns in 2026, up from 58% last year
• As the FTSE 100 starts this year strong, more equities investors plan to invest in UK markets in 2026 (+6 percentage points year-on-year)
• 34% of investors believe the FTSE 100 will outperform other global markets this year despite some investors sharing concerns about a lack of growth opportunities
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• J.P. Morgan Personal Investing research shows retail investors are increasing their risk appetite amid growing optimism

Two-thirds of UK retail investors (66%) say that they feel confident about the prospects of positive investment returns in 2026, according to new research¹ from J.P. Morgan Personal Investing. Market confidence has improved significantly from 2025 when only 58% of UK investors said they were confident about positive returns from financial markets.

“UK investor confidence has turned a corner with more retail investors feeling bullish about positive returns this year,” said James McManus, chief investment officer at J.P. Morgan Personal Investing. “Coming off the back of a volatile year for markets, UK investors are increasingly focusing on building resilient, diversified investment portfolios that can weather market surprises and benefit from global opportunities. With the Government’s industry-wide retail investor campaign kicking off soon, this growing investor optimism is a positive sign and could also be a catalyst for spurring on the next generation of UK investors in 2026.”

In December 2025, the Investment Association² announced plans to launch an industry-wide retail investment campaign later this year, bringing together several UK wealth and investment managers including J.P. Morgan Personal Investing, to raise awareness of the benefits of investing.

UK investors increase home bias to domestic markets

The research study further shows that investors plan to increase their exposure to domestic markets despite already high levels of home bias towards the UK. Of those investing in equities this year, 72% of retail investors said they plan to invest in UK markets like the FTSE 100 and 250, up from 66% last year. Among those who said they did not plan to invest in the UK market this year, a quarter (27%) wanted to see more growth opportunities and stronger performance in the domestic market before investing.

Despite concerns around an AI bubble forming in US equity markets, appetite for US stocks remains resilient (2025: 48%, 2026: 47%). Investors with larger portfolios (+£100k in assets) are especially confident about US markets with 52% planning to invest across the pond this year.

As confidence in global markets has increased among UK retail investors, so has their appetite for investment risk. A majority (55%) of investors said they had a medium-to-high investment risk appetite, up from 49% in 2025. The research further shows that portfolio risk levels among investors could rise in the year ahead with 22% of investors planning to increase their investment risk in the 12 months’ ahead.

James McManus added: “UK investors aren’t opposed to home comforts. A strong majority are looking to UK equity markets this year for steady returns from the listed banking, energy, and mining giants as well as the household brands that make up the UK indexes. Investors will be buoyed by the positive start to the year with the FTSE 100 being lifted above the 10,000 mark for the first time ever, adding to this momentum. While UK equity markets have performed well recently, returns have been dwarfed by other markets like the US over the long-term which have delivered higher returns off the back of an emerging ‘golden age’ for AI and tech companies. It is encouraging to see investors taking a global approach to the investments so that their investment portfolios are diversified and can benefit from market gains wherever they may appear.”

¹ Opinium survey of 1,000 UK investors undertaken on the 3^rd to 10^th December 2025. Year-on-year data is compared with a survey undertaken by Opinium at the start of 2025 (9th to 16th January 2025) using the same panel of 1,000 UK investors. Opinium Research is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules.

² Investment Association announcement – December 2025 (link here)

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