A political historian who correctly called nine of the last 11 US presidential winners is predicting a double defeat for Donald Trump’s Republicans.
Allan Lichtman believes that the Democrats will take control of both chambers of Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
The American University professor puts their chances of winning the House of Representatives at more than 90%, with a narrower victory in the Senate.
Although he also predicted Kamala Harris would beat Trump in 2024, so Republicans can look to that rare prediction mistake of his for a little bit of comfort.
Speaking to The Times, Lichtman said that the Republicans’ slim House majority means that Democrats have relatively little ground to make up on November 3.
‘Democrats need so few seats to take the majority. I give it over a 90% chance,’ he said.
The Senate is a slightly tougher prospect, although he still gives Democrats a 67% chance of seizing control of that. His most likely result is a 51-49 Democratic majority, reversing the Republicans’ current 53-47 advantage over the Democratic caucus.
That would require the Democrats to make a net gain of four seats. Lichtman expects them to flip Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas while holding onto Michigan.
He also believes that Alaska could go to Democrat Mary Peltola, with other traditionally Republican states producing quite competitive contests. South Carolina, Kansas and Iowa are among those that he’s got his eye on for that.
‘It’s amazing that Democrats are competitive in South Carolina, which Trump won by 18 points,’ he said. ‘Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since the Great Depression in 1932 and yet that’s a neck-and-neck race, as is Iowa.’
Lichtman bases his assessment partly on national polls that quiz Americans on whether they would prefer a Democrat or Republican to represent them in Congress.
He said Democrats were ahead by seven to 11 percentage points, adding that he trusts those figures more than polls of individual races.
He also sees signs that Democratic voters are more motivated to turn out, with early voting looking encouraging for the party.
‘Usually Republicans turn out at a higher rate but this time it looks like the Democratic enthusiasm is higher,’ he said.
President Trump’s approval ratings are another factor behind his forecast. Lichtman argues that previous presidents with similarly low ratings offer a fairly unpleasant precedent for the Republicans.
‘When the approval rating for a president is as low as Trump’s, on average The White House party loses 40 House and six Senate seats,’ he said. ‘It’s not a prediction, that’s just showing how heavily the winds are blowing against Republicans.’
He compared the political climate to the 1966 midterms, when Democrats suffered some rather massive losses under President Lyndon Johnson. Growing opposition to the Vietnam War and unrest at home formed the backdrop to that particular defeat.
Lichtman believes that the Democrats could win more decisively if wealthy donors weren’t pouring money into Republican campaigns.
Singling out billionaires including Elon Musk, he said: ‘It would be a huge Democratic sweep if not for the intervention of the billionaires.’
His earlier forecasts also include backing Al Gore in 2000. Gore won the national popular vote but lost the Electoral College and the presidency to George W Bush.
Lichtman nevertheless defended the historical basis of his approach. ‘I’m not psychic… with a crystal ball. My system is based on history,’ he said.
Even by his own assessment, the number of competitive Senate races would once have seemed far-fetched.
‘If you had told me the map would look like this eight months ago, I would have said you were nuts.’
How accurate will Lichtmann’s predictions be? We’ll have to wait and see.