Early voting at Kearny Town Hall in Kearny, New Jersey, on Oct. 24, 2026. (Photo by Anne-Marie Caruso/New Jersey Monitor)
WASHINGTON — Tens of millions of Americans have already cast a ballot in the 2026 midterm elections that will determine control of Congress and shape President Donald Trump’s remaining policy agenda.
As of Monday, more than 57 million Americans had cast a vote, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab, which tracks early voting. This year’s elections have already shattered the record for midterm early voting, set in 2022, in which nearly 46 million Americans voted early.
Polls close between 6 p.m. and 9 p.m. local time on Election Day. Under federal law, as long as voters are in line when the polls close, they can still cast their ballots. Voters must be at least 18 years old, a U.S. citizen and registered to vote in their state. Many states allow same-day registration.
Trump came into his second term with his party in control of both chambers of Congress. But historically, the president’s party loses seats in the midterm elections, and this cycle appears unlikely to be an exception.
Elections forecasters have favored Democrats to win back the majority in the U.S. House, which would allow them to significantly rein in Trump’s legislative agenda. Analysts have also increasingly predicted Democrats could win control of the U.S. Senate could, which would allow them to block appointments, including a potential U.S. Supreme Court vacancy.
The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter projects Democrats to pick up a Senate seat in North Carolina and lists six more races as toss-ups, all of which are now held by Republicans. Those races are in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas. Democrats are defending an open seat in Michigan that the Cook Political Report moved from toss-up to leaning toward the Democrat, Abdul El-Sayed, on Monday.
If the other races go as predicted, Democrats would have to win at least three of the toss-ups to gain control of the chamber.
The Cook Political Report shifted 12 House races in the direction of Democrats on Oct. 30. Eighteen remained toss-ups as of Monday. Democrats have to net three seats to flip control of the House, if they also win the race in a heavily Democratic Florida district that is vacant after former Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned in April.
If Democrats gain the majority in the House, they are likely to pursue investigations into Trump and other administration officials.
They have also signaled they will embrace a policy agenda centered on lowering costs, especially related to healthcare, though Trump’s veto looms on any major legislation Congress passes for the next two years.
Legal challenges amid dismal numbers
The war with Iran that has contributed to high gas and diesel prices, inflation and an aggressive immigration crackdown has led to historically low presidential approval ratings. Trump’s approval on average was at 37% Monday, only a tick better than his second-term low of 36% recorded just two weeks earlier, according to The New York Times.
The president has already made an attempt to use the Department of Justice to halt the certification of the Alaska U.S. Senate race, after The New York Times reported the campaign of Democratic Senate candidate Mary Peltola made an effort to recruit a candidate with the same name as GOP incumbent Dan Sullivan in order to stack the four-way general election in her favor.
States Newsroom has not independently verified the Times story.
A federal judge tossed out the lawsuit Sunday.
Other court challenges related to the administration’s actions or potential actions related to the election are still unfolding on Election Day. Cases include Democrats’ aim to bar armed federal officials for polling locations and DOJ’s effort to prevent California from counting 20,000 votes the Trump administration suspects are noncitizens.
The U.S. Supreme Court on Monday denied the Trump administration’s final attempt to force California to set aside the ballots.
Separately, congressional Democrats have taken their own precautions. More than 100 Senate staffers and 300 House staffers were trained as election monitors and will be sent to 60 or 70 close races, the top Democrat on the House Administration Committee, Joe Morelle, told reporters last week.
Even after the polls close, it could take weeks to know the results of some races, and consequently, control of both chambers of Congress, due to each state’s voting laws and processes for counting votes.
After the 2022 midterms, control of the House was projected for Republicans eight days after Election Day. In 2024, the same projection took nine days.