I’m so bored with the USA: A new low

“Drifting into my solitude” 

Almost as soon as Shabana Mahmood, the home secretary, finished spitting venom, sorry, announcing her new immigration strategy,  her fellow labor MPs started to criticise and disown the policy. 

It never fails to amaze me just how out-of-touch Starmer and his colleagues are with the rest of the party. All their major announcements, pensioners heating allowance, disability benefits, and now immigration are about as far away from labor as you can get. It isn’t even New labor, this a nasty labor; a confused rabble of wannabe Tories, flexing their muscles and trying to out Farage, Farage. 

You can tell just how wrong the policy is when someone like Tommy Robinson praises it. 

As for the home secretary, she just another in a line of immigrants with a chip on her shoulder. As with Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, and Kemi Badenoch, Mahmood is an immigrant who has benefitted from all this country has to offer. Sure, they and their parent might have worked and studied hard to achieve their goals, but why deny others that opportunity? 

I suspect that there is an element of caste distinction at play; looking down at people from countries such as Sudan, Eritrea, Iran, Afghanistan and Syria. 

‘this a nasty labor; a confused rabble of wannabe Tories, flexing their muscles and trying to out Farage, Farage’ 

I was intrigued to read that Mahmood is a member of “Blue labor”, a campaign group and political faction that seeks to promote blue-collar and culturally conservative values within the Party, focussing on immigration, crime, EDI and community spirit, whilst supporting labor rights and left-wing economic policies. 

Sounds suspiciously like Reform followers referred as the “working right” that I talked about in “Each and Everyone“  

Under current rules, asylum seekers are given a five-year right to stay in the country and can apply for settled status after that. Ms Mahmood proposals would mean that refugees will only be allowed to stay in the country for an initial 30-month period, this will then be reviewed with a view to allowing to remain  for another 30 months. After two decades in Britain, they could apply to stay here permanently. 

The basis of this is borrowed from Denmark. Whilst the theory helped Denmark’s Social Democrats retain power, in practise the results have been messy, E.G., the rules stripped Syrians of protection, but, rather than removing them people have been left in “deportation centres”, unable to work or live normally. 

Within Mahmood’s proposal is a get tough plan for Angola, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo by refusing to grant visas to their nationals if they don’t take back foreign national offenders. This is little more than posturing, as Home Office data shows that only a few thousand visas were granted last year to migrants from all three countries combined. 

The most cynical proposal is the jewellery confiscation plan. This might play well with Daily Mail readers, but anyone who think asylum seekers have many, if any assts left after trekking half-way across the world, and then paying gangmasters to ferry them across the channel is beyond stupid! 

In Denmark, where the policy was initiated, assets were confiscated on 17 occasions between 2016 and 2022. This proposal we summed-up by Green peer, Jenny Jones, as “disgusted”. 

labor’s proposal differs in scale when compared to Denmark. The Home Office aims to reassess tens of thousands of refugees every two and a half years. With around 100,000 asylum claims annually, this would leave the system needing to conduct around 70,000 reviews each year. The Refugee Council says that the Home Office would need to review the status of 1.4 million people by 2035 at a cost of £872m.  

This would be the same system that cannot currently process the 50,000 appeals already in the queue, with wait-times of C.1-yr and tribunal judges are in short supply. Building an infrastructure to support this is all but pie in the sky thinking. 

The proposal doesn’t entail leaving the European convention on human rights, instead it will be changed. The immediate problem is two-fold; any meaningful change cannot be unilateral, and any solo-attempt would be self-defeating, risking Northern Ireland’s peace and undermining the post-Brexit deal with the EU. 

A more viable alternative would be a Rishi Sunak style compromise, that could be achieved by 2026. The Refugee Council suggests the following: 

40% of hotel residents come from five countries – Sudan, Eritrea, Iran, Afghanistan and Syria – from where between 60% and 98% are granted asylum. A one-off scheme to give permission to stay for a limited period, subject to security checks, would empty hotels rapidly.  

This would overcome labor trying to out Reform, Reform, which loses them support to both the LibDems and Greens, whilst solving the single asylum-related issue that the public cares most about. 

Responding to the proposal, the veteran labor peer, Alf Dubs, who arrived in the UK aged six in 1939 fleeing the persecution of Jews in Nazi-occupied Czechoslovakia, said: “There is a proper case for children, there is a proper case for family reunion when there are children who are on their own,” and he said that “to use children as a weapon as the home secretary is doing I think is a shabby thing”. 

“to use children as a weapon as the home secretary is doing I think is a shabby thing”

At least 20 MPs have publicly expressed concern about the policies including the Folkestone MP and former human rights barrister, Tony Vaughan, the select committee chair Sarah Owen and 2024 intake MPs including Simon Opher, Abitsam Mohamed and Neil Duncan-Jordan. 

The chair of the housing and communities select committee, Florence Eshalomi, asked Mahmood in the Commons if she was certain there would not be “unintended consequences” from the policies. 

Speaking in the Commons, Mahmood rebuked MPs for suggesting she was using divisive language. She mentioned the crude racial slur she said was “regularly” used against her by people telling her to “go back home”. 

“I know through my own experience and the experience of my constituents just how divisive asylum has become in our country,” she said 

And, two wrongs don’t make a right! 

labor MPs said there were in particular widespread concerns about “morally bankrupt” moves to ramp up the deportation of families – which in practice would mean increased detention of children before removal. 

“I didn’t fight an election as a labor MP to bundle distressed children on to deportation flights,” one MP said. Another MP in a Green-facing seat said they were facing an enormous backlash on social media. “It’s all terrible. Straight out of the far-right playbook. Lots of colleagues feel the same,” said a third. 

There really is little point debating the rights and wrongs with the government, they are simply too far gone. The top tier in cabinet are desperate, fighting a rearguard action of their own making. All they have left to offer is trying to be Reform.  

These proposals are the culmination of a growing “get tough” in immigration by the government. 

They simply cannot grasp the fact that you won’t defeat them by trying to outdo them, you defeat them by showing people that they are wrong, and there is an alternative. 

The poll reflect that disaster that is this government. Their support has fallen by 18%, leaving them 15-points behind Reform. labor current polling at18%, matches the lowest Ipsos has ever recorded for the party, back in May 2009. 

‘The poll reflect the disaster that is this government’

Ipsos, shows Reform on 33%, labor 18%, Conservatives 16%, Green Party 15% (+3), LibDems 12% (n/c). 

As I wrote in “Tragedy”, the Green’s vote share at 15% is the highest Ipsos has ever recorded for the party. 

To date, Reform have successfully retained 92% of 2024 voters, whilst also attracting voters from other parties, especially the Conservatives; 27% of 2024 Conservative voters now say they will vote Reform. 

The polling expert John Curtice said labor has “suffered the worst-ever fall in support for a newly elected government”.  

However as I wrote in “Each and Everyone” labor’s sweeping 2024 electoral victory owed more to our electoral system than popular support. They won C. 66% of seats with just 33% of the vote. Accounting for low turnout, Curtice said just 20% voted for labor. Hardly the landslide it appeared. 

We now turn to the electorates current darlings, Reform, who, despite their commanding lead in the polls aren’t having the best of weeks. 

The Guardian have again published an article about Nigel Farage and his reported racist behavior in his schooldays. It would appear, Nigel didn’t like his Jewish school colleagues. 

The Guardian reports speaking with more than a dozen of Farage’s contemporaries at Dulwich college, a public school in south London, who said they had witnessed or suffered “racist” behavior by him. 

Among those was the Bafta- and Emmy-winning director Peter Ettedgui, 61, who claimed to have been verbally abused by Farage repeatedly as a 13- and 14-year-old. “He would sidle up to me and growl: ‘Hitler was right,’ or ‘Gas them,’ sometimes adding a long hiss to simulate the sound of the gas showers,”  

“He would sidle up to me and growl: ‘Hitler was right,’ or ‘Gas them,’ sometimes adding a long hiss to simulate the sound of the gas showers,”  

When previously faced with claims from Channel 4 in 2013 about his conduct at school, Farage admitted saying “some ridiculous things … not necessarily racist things … it depends on how you define it”. 

Reform have defended the situation, saying it was years ago, memories fade, and it’s one persons words against another. Interestingly, there was no outright denial, more extenuating circumstances. However, who could imagine even the young Nigel being racist? 

Interestingly, the right-wing media, who would be clamouring for blood were it a labor MP, are deathly silent on the subject. So, to are the usual rent-a-gobs, such as Kemi Badenoch  would usually be frothing at the mouth and screaming “resign”, or the usually morally outraged Chris Philp. Still…. 

The PM is calling for an explanation, but, I suspect Farage will just avoid the subject, and it could quickly become tomorrow’s chip wrapper. 

My favourite comments on the subject came from the LibDems home affairs spokesperson, Max Wilkinson, who said: “A lot of people say stupid and offensive things at school, but most grow out of it. Sadly, in Nigel Farage’s case he’s made a career out of it instead.” 

Elsewhere, it would appear Reform are not in-step with their voters 

According to a survey by YouGov of > 3,000 people are considering voting for Reform, 61% would support a one-off tax on UK households with net wealth above £10m. 

Farage has consistently resisted the idea of a wealth tax, arguing that higher earners and other rich people should not be targeted in case it makes them more likely to leave the UK.  

In addition, 77% said they would back a windfall tax on energy companies in general. Meanwhile, 73% are in favour of a windfall tax on high bank profits – the latter of which is a LibDem policy. 

The polling revealed a generally critical view of both industries among the pro-Reform cohort. A total of 59% believe energy companies have a negative effect on the UK, against 14% who think they make a positive contribution. For banks, the figures were 40% negative and 12% positive. 

‘Our likely next PM is a racist’

Farage has often been critical of big business, the only plan for a windfall tax set out by Reform to date involves targeting renewable energy companies. 

Support for these policies was even greater among voters leaning towards other parties, the poll found. For labor, 82% supported the idea of a wealth tax, along with 81% for LibDems, 63% for Conservatives and 85% for Greens. 

When it came to windfall taxes, C.75% of potential Conservative voters were in favour – with greater support among those aligned with the LibDems, labor and Greens. 

Naomi Smith, the chief executive of Best for Britain, said the findings showed “Reeves has permission from both the progressive left and the Reform-curious right to make tax fair, winning back voters and exposing Farage in the process. It is an opportunity they should not be afraid to grasp.” 

Liam Byrne, the labor MP who chairs the business select committee, and who has worked with Best for Britain on populism, said “These findings show there is real permission, across the political spectrum, for a budget that puts fairness first: making the wealthiest pay their share, cracking down on profiteering, and rewarding hard work once again. If we want to rebuild trust, that’s the road we must take.” 

And so ends another week….the government are promoting racist policies and alienating many party members and MPs. Our likely next PM is a racist.  

I shall finish with my old warning; with racism it isn’t where you start its where you end, therefore, its better not to start at all!|   

“I see a ship in the harbor
I can and shall obey” 

‘The big story this week is in-danger of slipping under the radar, or, perhaps more accurately being ignored by an agenda driven media.

The allegations about Farage’s racist, especially antisemitic behavior at school aren’t new, but they have been a new lease of life by “victims” coming forward with specific accusations.

I’m not surprised that the right-wing media are turning a blind eye, this doesn’t suit their agenda, unlike a labor minister paying the wrong Stamp Duty of not having a letting license.

The comments reported are both racist and nasty, raising the question of can someone like that lead the country?

I believe it goes deeper, making a mockery of those that fought and died in WW2;, which fought to defeat Naziism and their actions, such as the Holocaust. A prospective PM who jokes about such things and uses it to bully Jewish people, disrespects all of those that resisted.

We should be resisting racism in all its forms, something our government might need reminding of, too!

Other things of note are more financial.

I read that C.$1.2tn has been wiped off the value of cryptocurrencies’, proving that money per se isn’t a tool for speculation.

How can you have a “currency” that loses value when investors decide to exit speculative assets? A pound is still worth a pound, irrespective of whether the AI bubble bursts, or US interest rates increase.

Unfortunately, it appears we may suffer more from the crypto crash, as we have  hollowed out social mobility while selling to young people the myth of entrepreneurial escape. As a result, many  Britons are more likely to have bought into crypto than their European counterparts.

Due to the pernicious influence of Trump, right-wing politicians such as Argentina’s Javier Milei or our own  Nigel Farage, now embrace crypto aggressively. For them crypto is just another pose in their message of being an insurgent alternative to a “rigged” system.

Crypto appears to be the “latest way for the powerful to profit from the powerless.”

Turning to AI, Nvidia’s latest results are being seized upon as more proof that AI isn’t in bubble territory. I suspect that all the time the circular model I wrote about in “Beware of President’s Bearing Gifts”, is sustainable then the bubble will just keep inflating!

With market crashes there is usually an early warning that the majority misses.

If you think back to the GFC, people often cite the collapse of two Bear Stearns CDO funds, and the suspension of a similar fund by BNP  as being that moment.

It was about a year later that Lehman collapsed, in the interim “the bands still playing and we’re still dancing” was the mantra, not unlike today.

Yesterday, it was revealed that Blackrock is deferring its own fees on a private credit CLO that has underperformed; the back-end higher risk tranches are stalled after cash flows were redirected to pay the senior tranches after the CLO failed collateralisation tests.

Perhaps that’s the next “Bear moment”?

Lyrically, we start with Bowie’s “Sound and Vision”, we end with New Order’s “Blue Monday.

I shall derive great enjoyment from watching Farage squirm!

Philip’

@coldwarsteve

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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