“And red, mutant eyes gaze down on Hunger City No more big wheels”
Racism and immigration never seem to be far below the surface of today’s politics
The forthcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election looks to be no different, with labor likely to select Sagal Abdi-Wali, Camden council’s leader and community organizer, as their candidate.
Whilst this isn’t a seat Reform can win, they have already started spreading their poison. Their home affairs spokesperson Zia Yusuf, wrote on X that Abdi-Wali “was born in Somalia. Do you understand what’s happening”? The telegraph, who you might expect better from, described her as a “Somali refugee”.
Georgia Gould MP, former Camden council leader, responded on X, she “has dedicated her life to public service” and is “the elected leader of Camden council, a community where she grew up and has lived for 35 years” who “embodies the best of our values … an outstanding example of British success”.
The racism prevalent in today’s society was highlighted by the weekend’s events in Dover and Portsmouth. The actions of the Patriot Platform look increasingly sinister. This was clearly planned, and could be the beginning of organized revolt, with protestors wearing makeshift black uniforms and balaclavas. Perhaps, not yet the Blackshirts, but….
They were founded by Tommy Robinson’s right-hand man Daniel Thomas, who says there are Christian “army of patriots” formed to, “reclaim our borders, restore order and send a clear message: Britain belongs to the British people”.
Since the riots of 2024, Thomas has repeatedly spoken about the need to take to the streets and take direct action, with, in his words a “patriotic army that is able to take control of the United Kingdom”.
In Germany, the success of the AfD shows how Europe is falling for the hard-rights Ethnonationalism. Whilst not achieving outright victory, the party received 44% of the votes cast.
‘Europe is falling for the hard-rights Ethnonationalism’
Germany’s forthcoming state elections in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern in two weeks’ time, and next year’s presidential elections are becoming increasingly important.
As Trump has shown, no politician appears to be too extreme for political success.
Worryingly, Germany is still more economically successful that many of its peers, with ongoing trade surpluses. Whilst manufacturing share of their overall employment has declined, as is the case in other advanced economies, Germany still remains a more industrial nation than post-1980s America, with trade surpluses and retaining large-scale manufacturing employment beyond the wildest dreams of Trump.
Despite all of this, Germany doesn’t appear to have escaped the bitterness and political extremism that is usually attributed to deindustrialisation.
Residents of the former DDR still consider themselves unequal, with incomes below the national average. However, this belies the fact that the employment rate for men aged 15-64 is >75%.
There are clearly similarities between the situation in Germany and the UK.
Whilst Germany has maintained much of its industrial base, both suffer regional inequality, which has been weaponised by ethnonationalist politicians demonising immigration.
Germany is further down this road as the recent success of the AfD demonstrates, whilst our populists, Reform and Restore, are still some way from attaining power.
It might be stretching a point to say that PM Burnham represents the mainstream’s last chance, but it is conceivable. As such, the forthcoming budget is likely to set the tone for what follows.
There has been early signs of change, with Burnham’s promising to overthrow 40-years of neoliberalism and vanquish the ghost of Thatcherism.
In contrast, the chancellor seems more “steady, as she goes”, whilst talking-up investment and devolution. Our economy has been held back by decades of underinvestment, and growth has been far too concentrated in London and the SE.
He also supports increasing defense spending to 3% of GDP. Whilst there seems to be some indecision on when, in his resignation in June, Healey was adamant this should be by 2030.
Exactly what might be possible is constrained by the election pledge of no tax increases, and higher interest rates on our existing debt appear to have wiped out up to half of the £24bn headroom Reeves left against her fiscal rules.
Additional constraints include C.£4bn lost due to lower-than-forecast migration, and Burnham’s VAT cut on electricity bills needs to be funded.
Healey intends to continue having a “buffer against uncertainty”, which, economists predict, will mean either increased taxation or spending cuts.
This all feels “samo, samo”. Perhaps the chancellor already been captured by the Treasury, falling for their more orthodox arguments.
Signs of tension between him and the PM are becoming apparent, with the chancellor suggesting in a television interview that Burnham was running a “continuity” government.
‘Signs of tension between him and the PM are becoming apparent’
Spokespeople for the PM responded, saying: “Nobody listening to Andy and his plans for growth could think he is just about continuity. He’s going to change things.”
Interviewed at the weekend, the PM, said it would be impossible to build a dynamic economy on crumbling infrastructure, with businesses needing affordable energy and reliable transport, and so more investment would be needed.
Ultimately, mere continuity won’t cut it.
There is now a clear trend, not just in Germany but across Europe; far-right parties are going from strength to strength, with old dominant parties decimated, and party systems fragmented. As a result, forming coalitions without including far-right parties is becoming increasingly complicated, often resulting in unstable coalitions, which, in-turn, create political dissatisfaction and far-right support.
If they fail to understand this, their traditional voters will shun them, leaving the far right as the victors
Moreover, we are seeing mainstream politicians realising their unpopularity, and pivoting rightwards as they attempt to retain power. All this achieves is to normalise the previously unacceptable
Ultimately, this is unsustainable.
Democratic parties need to understand the concerns and preferences of the majority of voters, the ones who don’t vote for the far-right. They need to look beyond crime and immigration and focus on the real issues; increasing housing provision and public spending, limiting economic and income inequality, fighting the climate crisis and strengthening European integration.
If they fail to understand this, their traditional voters will shun them, leaving the far right as the victors, even if they represent only a minority of the population.
“… There’s a time for the second best And there’s a time when the feeling’s gone But it’s hard to be hard I guess
Today, we consider events of the last week at home and in Germany.
The organized protests here, and the success of the AfD in Germany point to a dystopian future for both.
At the heart of the matter is the failure of economic policy, especially post-GFC, which has created inequality, and progressive politics, which has led to many feeling left behind.
While Germany made a decent effort to reintegrate East Germany the cause was too far gone.
In attempting to reunify, the overall cost was estimated at €2trn of public and private funds transferred from West to East Germany since 1990, one of the largest economic integration projects in modern history.
Despite this eye-watering spend, while doing better, the “east” is still unequal and is proving fertile territory for ethnonationalism.
Rather than learning from the follies of Trump and the suffering of many Americans, it seems, that for some, nothing is too extreme anymore.
In Germany and the UK, in fact, in most places, the cost-of-living is increasingly perilous.
Much of this can be attributed to Trump, primarily in his futile wars and dismissal of the climate crisis. He was the president who did away with inflation.
Instead, it is rampant.
Today, gasoline averages $4.10 a gallon compared with $3.16 last year.
In response, Trump told an audience that when they have to “pay a tiny little bit more for your gasoline, just remember, you’re doing it so that a very evil country cannot have—a country, really, it’s the number one state sponsor of terror in the world. We don’t want to have them have a nuclear weapon. So remember that, when you have to pay a little bit more, you’re at $4, it’s okay. I mean, it’s, I’m not, I’m not. I will never apologize. I did the right thing.”
“Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon. MAGA! President DJT.”
I would write more but I’m off to rewrite the map; France is now English!
Lyrically, we open with “Future Legend” by David Bowie, and end with “Future Starts Slow” by The Kills.
“Cry ‘God for Harry, England, and Saint George!’”
Philip
@coldwarsteve
Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.
Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s
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