The Times They Are A-Changin’: “Doctor, I Feel Left Behind….”

…..well Bob, the best I can prescribe for you is two black shirted coated tablets. They are called National Socialists Populists. One tablet is Donald Trump, the other Nigel Farage.

“You choose your leaders and place your trust
As their lies wash you down and their promises rust” (1)

Farage is unlikely to become PM, mainly because no other party(s) will want to work with Reform. Trump is president, even though he shouldn’t be.

Their appeal is as a “man of the people”. They are bar room politicians, creating a persona that connects with voters as they rail the establishment.

Both have created unlikely voters coalitions. One part comprises of wealthy voters attracted by their neoliberalism, cutting regulations and tax, allowing them to continue building their wealth. The other are the polar opposite, the left behind victims of the neoliberalism of Reagan and Thatcher, whose free-market disciplines led to deindustrialisation. Many of their jobs were offshored with the onset of globalisation, forcing them into the gig economy.

The prosperity created during this era centred on the financialisaton of the economy, creating wealth for the few with no trickle-down to the majority. Inequality, which had been falling, began increasing.

The catalyst was the GFC. Wall St blew up the economy, was bailed out by Main St, with nobody held to account.

‘Wall St blew up the economy, was bailed out by Main St, with nobody held to account’

Both Farage and Trump cynically exploited the cultural and economic grievances of voters who were “disappointed” by traditional politicians and felt “left-behind”.

Trump’s prime support is more formalised than Farage’s, his Make America Great Again (“MAGA”) movement is, or at least was, his own electorate.

Both understood the long-term economic anxiety and cultural, identity-based political grievances of their voters, using their frustrations to create a personality cult centred on national populism.

Their message centres on nationalism, emphasising national sovereignty, nativism, and sometimes Christian nationalism.

Trump takes this further with “America First”, prioritising national interests in trade through protectionism and tariffs, and foreign policy. committing to end America’s involvement in overseas wars.

They target cultural conservatism, promising to reverse perceived liberal shifts in society. In the 2024 election, Trump focused on his opponents, Kamala Harris, support for publicly funded transition care for transgender prison inmates: “Kamala is for they/them, Trump is for you.”

In true populist style that have created an enemy, the corrupt “establishment”, which became a focus for peoples’ grievances. Everything is black and white, them and “Us vs. Them”, a clear division between “true Americans/Britains” (supporters) and “other” groups (migrants, elites, liberals), using their “negative resentment” to unite their base.

This enables them to appear as “the leader” based on an intense personal loyalty, which has enabled both to brush of all manner of controversy.

Trump, being American favours large-scale rallies, but both have become adept at exploiting social media, often bypassing traditional media to directly communicating with supporters.

If all that glitters isn’t gold, then the majority of what populists promise isn’t true or feasible, as US voters are now starting to realise. A new NBC News Decision Desk Poll showed that:

• 63% disapprove of Trump’s presidency, with 50% strongly disapproving.
• 67% disapprove of his handling of Iran, with 54% strongly disapprove.

When he was re-elected, many commentators suggested that there was a definitive cultural shift, with voters wanting his aggressive, domineering style of right-wing populism.

However, as the veneer exposes his limitations, that looks to be overblown. The sum total of his presidency has been cultural retrenchment: slashing grants for “woke” research; turning federal programmes meant to promote equality into engines for discrimination; stymying promotions for women and people of color in the armed services effectively resegregating the military; and banning trans women athletes.

ICE officers patrol street and airports, snatching anyone they believe to be illegal immigrants. This has caused house prices to rise as the construction industry workforce dwindles, and has alienated many of the Latino men who voted for him.

Then, there is the price of gas (petrol); in 2025 it averaged $3.10 a gallon, now with his Iran war it’s over $4.

In November 2024, directly after Trump’s election victory, I wrote “Darklands”, aa I tried to analyze what happened.

For the majority of voters, the economy is simple do they feel wealthy, better off than before?

Since 1980 the answer has, for the majority, become more and more, no. For the few, it is clearly yes.

In theory, if you consider the performance of US economy using traditional measures, the answer should be yes and yes. As Mark Zandi, the chief economist at Moody’s, wrote “… there is no denying it: this is among the best performing economies in my 35+ years as an economist.” Growth: up. Jobs: up. Wages: rising. The value of your home: up. Share prices: booming. Inflation: falling. Borrowing rates: dropping.”

‘… there is no denying it: this is among the best performing economies in my 35+ years as an economist’

Yet, still most Americans didn’t feel better off; for the majority of US employees, both white and blue collar, wages have flatlined for most of the past half century. Strip out inflation and average hourly earnings for 70% of employees have barely risen since Richard Nixon was president.

During his term as president, Biden spent trillions boosting the economy and adapting to the climate crisis, he supported unions and intervened in strikes. To date, this has produced little impact, Americans are better off than they were four years ago, it’s just that so many were in distress in 2020.

Only in 2020 did real wages for “production and non-supervisory employees” rise above where they were in 1973. This was not because they were unproductive: the US economy continues to do more with less almost every year. It’s just that most of the gains have stayed at the top.

This confirmed my thoughts, traditional economic measures, such as the S$P500 and GDP growth mean little to Main St.

What matters to them is unemployment, but that can be misleading. For example,, there is the “gig economy” where people have jobs but with zero hours, which means they are unemployed, but with no clear economic benefit.

Inflation is the measure that hurts the most; rising prices impact most on those with the least. This was Trump’s ace-in-the-hole; “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again. We’ll do that. We’ve got to bring it down.”

This was why the left behind voted for Trump.

In January 2026, Trump told the World Economic Forum in Davos, that his team had “defeated” inflation: “Grocery prices, energy prices, airfares, mortgage rates, rent and car payments are all coming down, and they’re coming down fast”.

‘Inflation is the measure that hurts the most; rising prices impact most on those with the least’

More recently, largely due to the Iran war and the ongoing impact of his tariffs, the OECD predicted that inflation would reach 4.2% (up from 2.6% in 2025)by year end, the highest in the G7.

This will cause greater pain as domestic employment and wages remain stagnant.

His tariffs, that were going to make America great again have primarily benefitted other countries. At least they did, before supreme court ruled against them. As a result, the administration is accepting applications from businesses seeking refunds for more than $166bn, with over 3,000 companies reportedly suing to secure their refunds, including Skechers, Revlon, Toyota, Nintendo of America, FedEx and Costco.

The only companies legally eligible to claim are those that officially paid the tariffs – predominantly importers and large corporations. The broader population who absorbed the cost through higher prices on everything from electronics to clothing has no direct recourse.

However, in Mar-a-Lago Trump’s chosen few are lining their own pockets.

‘in Mar-a-Lago Trump’s chosen few are lining their own pockets.There appears to be evidence of insider-trading…’

There appears to be evidence of insider-trading with the BBC reporting a fact pattern with trades and the timings of Trump’s war announcements showing “a consistent pattern of spikes just hours, or sometimes minutes, before a social media post or media interview was made public.” There was a similar spike over Trump’s announcement of his “Liberation Day” tariffs last April.

Also, an FT report found that “Pete Hegseth’s broker looked to buy defense fund before Iran attack”.

There is Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law; in a speech by Democrat Senator Jon Ossoff, he reminded the audience that Kushner is “on the Saudi payroll for $2 billion,” a reference to the $2 billion a Saudi sovereign wealth fund controlled by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has invested in Kushner’s private equity firm.

“And now he’s leading American diplomacy in the Middle East. Apparently, while at the very same time, asking princes and sheikhs across the Arab world to give him billions more.”

Overseas, and aside from Iran, Trump is doing what he can to destabilise both Nato and the EU. A recent strategy paper proposed interfering in European election to ensure favoured candidates succeed, although when debuted in Hungary, it failed miserably!

In France, the far-right Marine Le Pen warned her party “to keep our distance” from Trump. In Germany, the neo-Nazi AfD party is keeping their distance, observing that VP Vance’s visit “hung like millstones around [the former Hungarian leader’s] neck.”

In Italy, PM Giorgia Meloni, once Trump’s biggest supporter in the EU, has decided enough is enough after Trump attacked the Pope: “I find President Trump’s words towards the Holy Father unacceptable. The Pope is the head of the Catholic Church, and it is right and normal for him to call for peace and to condemn every form of war.”

‘decided enough is enough after Trump attacked the Pope’

They are realising that Trump is an electoral liability. Last summer, Europeans viewed Trump as only slightly less dangerous to Europe’s peace and security than Russia’s president Putin. In March, a YouGov poll showed Trump with unfavorability ratings of 78% in France, 86% in Germany, and 80% in Italy.

Last, and by no means least there is his illegal war with Iran, where the self-professed master businessman and negotiator was played by Israel. This isn’t new, Putin has also played him.

Iran is becoming an increasing embarrassment; there has been no quick win, no internal uprising instead the regime appears more entrenched. Iran, realising that a blockade is mightier than the missile are winning

Trump has resorted to a series of abhorrent online rants, appears confused and directionless.

‘Iran is becoming an increasing embarrassment’

One Iranian diplomatic outpost in Ghana pointed out on Tuesday: “In the past 24 hours the president of the United States has: — Thanked Iran for closure of Hormuz; threatened Iran; blamed China; praised China; declared the blockade a success; confirmed Iran restocked through the blockade; promised a deal with Iran; promised bombs will fall on Iran.”

Basically, after promises no more wars, he has made the same mistake as his Republican predecessors; starting a regime-change war in the Middle East that he has no chance of winning.

Ahead of November’s midterm congressional elections, Trump is increasingly unpopular, failing in his major policy initiatives and presiding over a fracturing coalition. The Democrats best tactic might be to do nothing, on the principle of never interrupting your enemy when he is making a mistake.

“And the public gets what the public wants
But I want nothing this society’s got” (1)

Notes:

“Going Underground” by The Jam

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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