“The wind howls through the empty blocks
Looking for a home
I run through the empty stone because I’m all alone”
In “Missed Opportunities”, I highlighted how the right’s obsession with free-markets saw us squander much of the opportunity offered by resources in North Sea, whereas Norway maximised theirs. The outcome of which saw Norway establish a mega sovereign wealth fund that benefits everyone, whereas we made a few shareholders rich, many of which weren’t British?
Ewan Gibbs, a specialist in the history of energy in the UK at the University of Glasgow, suggest how both politicians and the public saw North Sea oil: “It came to embody a sense of national renewal.”
Today the amount of economically viable oil and gas has declined, and by 2030 will produce just 15% of peak output. The big players, including BP have left, and employment is falling; date from the ONS shows only 27,000 direct employees, compared to a high of 120,000.
However, the rights fascination with North Sea resources remains undimmed. If anything, due to our energy dependency highlighted by wars in Ukraine and Iran, Ed Miliband’s plans for “Britain will be an energy superpower once again, exporting clean power”, are at the centre of a political storm.
“Britain will be an energy superpower once again, exporting clean power”
Reform are trying to hijack the narrative, suggesting we need to choose between climate and economy, using the cost-of-living crisis to highlight issues.
However, they are out-of-touch with current public opinion: 86% of Britons at least partly blame climate breakdown for the recent heatwaves, with 63% of net zero opponents make that connection. More than a third of Reform UK voters said tackling climate breakdown should be more of a priority in a recent poll.
People are increasingly aware that the expected poor harvests caused by heatwave will see food price inflation pick-up again.
Reforms so-called choice, is also questioned in a report by the German insurers Allianz, which shows that when temperatures rise above 30C, workers struggle to do their jobs and their productivity suffers.
For the most exposed countries – especially those in continental Europe – the impact will be considerable: over a five-year period this could reduce cumulative GDP by 5-7%.
Despite this, Reform leader, Nigel Farage, and Tory leader, Kemi Badenoch, have called for a massive expansion of drilling in the North Sea, and plan to reverse the ban on new licenses.
Both are sadly misguided: Farage thinks we can be “self-sufficient in gas”, whilst Badenoch promises an oil and gas industry that would “ensure our energy security for generations to come”. .
‘poor harvests caused by heatwave will see food price inflation pick-up again’
Both appear completely oblivious of the fact that we don’t own what’s left, the producers do. As a result, it will be sold on international exchange at the prevailing price, and therefore subject to the same price volatility as anyone else’s.
There is also the fact that the fields are largely spent. Steve Pye, a professor of energy systems and the deputy director of the Energy Institute at University College London, said: “The North Sea basin has been in decline since 2000. There are no credible prospects of reversing this.”
Also, benefits to the public purse are greatly exaggerated, as taxes will be offset by subsidies to oil and gas companies.
If we are to continue exploiting the North Sea, we would do better adding to the existing windfarms, which generate C.18% of our electricity. Overall, in 2025, renewables provided 50.4% of the UK’s electricity, compared with 31.8% from fossil fuels.
Whilst PM Burnham seems to be paying lip service to the rights demands by allowing development of the Rosebank and Jackdaw oil and gas fields, recent research by Imperial College London calls this into question.
They suggest that the economic damage caused by the carbon pollution from the oil and gas produced would be between £119bn and £336bn in the coming decades, compared with the £28.7bn in value to the UK estimated by Adura, the fossil fuel company promoting the new fields.
The figures are likely to be underestimates, as they do not include losses from amplified extreme weather, sea level rise or climate deaths.
Richard Sulley, of the University of Sheffield’s Grantham Centre for Sustainable Futures, said: “Expanding oil and gas production in the North Sea is not just an environmental crime but also economically illiterate. Climate change has already damaged the UK economy, with an estimated £4.4bn loss from this summer’s heatwaves alone.”
There is also a new threat to our climate, the gargantuan datacentres required by the AI industry.
‘Climate change has already damaged the UK economy, with an estimated £4.4bn loss from this summer’s heatwaves alone’
The planned East Havering Data Centre Campus (EHDCC) in North Ockendon would, if approved, be one of the largest in Europe, occupying 218ha of green belt, and generating >1m tonnes of carbon dioxide a year, equivalent to the carbon footprint of 8,480 flights from London to New York
The developer, Digital Reef, admit in their planning application, that the £14.7bn project “does not align with a science-based 1.5C compatible trajectory and achieving net zero by 2050”. Documents estimate the development would generate more than 72m tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO₂e) over its projected 60-year lifespan – 1.2m tonnes annually once fully operational.
There is also the question of supplying power to the monster.
Ofgem show that the average UK household electricity consumption is 2,500 kWh per year. Digital Reef say that at a “likely” 50% load, the campus would consume 2.65bn kWh per year of electricity, equivalent to >1m UK households.
“Is AI Really Worth It?”
The centre will connect to the Grid via the Warley substation, which will need to be upgraded for the job, and won’t be fully operational until 2033.
Neso, Britain’s grid operator, has warned MPs that datacentre developers have requested 72.8GW of electricity connections by 2039 – a “huge step change for the sector” – and C.60% more than peak power demand last year.
Donald Campbell, advocacy director at the tech justice nonprofit Foxglove, said datacentre developers should at a minimum be required to build enough additional renewable generation and storage to supply their facilities. “That’s the only way of really ensuring that it’s not going to add to carbon emissions. They shouldn’t just plug into the grid and drain the power that everyone else needs.”
Being inquisitive, I looked at the Reef Origin website; apparently, they are a ”global leader in ESG and sustainability.
“Our projects lead the way in planet-conscious design by seamlessly integrating sustainability with innovation. We prioritise eco-friendly materials, energy-efficient systems, and thoughtful planning to minimise environmental impact while maximising long-term value. Each project reflects our commitment to a greener future, setting new standards for responsible design and construction.”
I shall leave you with the question asked previously: “Is AI Really Worth It?”
“”“You don’t know what you got til it’s gone.”
Today, we look at climate change, the latest battleground in the so-called culture wars.
The right, always a lover of drama, paints this as a choice between economic growth and prosperity or saving the planet.
This is a message gleefully supported by their equally ignorant media “partners”, who spoon-feed the disaffected and left-behind with yet more grievance politics.
The message both politicians and media push is driven by lobbyists for the fossil fuel industry. Think of it as the energy industry’s equivalent of “smoking are good for you.”
The latest drivel centres around nationalism and energy independence.
Now, had we exploited North Sea Resources via state-owned entities, as Norway did, there might be some sense in this. Unfortunately, the North Sea is just another example of free-market failings; as a result, we will never be energy independent in fossil fuels.
There is, however, a brave new world of renewable energy powered by the wind, sun and tides, which we all own. Aside from the seabed, which is owned by the monarchy, who still have the best lobbyists.
There is no reason why renewables cannot create prosperity. Other than it doesn’t suit the right’s narrative; it’s too woke, and there aren’t enough “incentives” from lobbyists and providers.
But there is also a new enemy: big tech, AI, and their data centers.
As I was finishing this piece, news came in of two more developments: Wapseys Wood datacentre in Buckinghamshire and the Quest Park datacentre in Bedfordshire
Analysis by the non-profit group Foxglove reveals that when fully operational, they will use 1.3GW of power and produce more than 4.5m tonnes of carbon emissions, which analysts calculate will exceed all of ExxonMobil’s UK fossil fuel emissions.
Experts have said this demonstrates the “serious threat” data centers pose to the UK’s legally binding climate goals.
Big continues to f**k small….
Lyrically, we start with “London’s Burning” by The Clash, and finish with “Big Yellow Taxi” by Joni Mitchell.
Philip.
@coldwarsteve
Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.
Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s
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