The Times They Are A-Changin’: “Obliterated”; “Obliteration”; “Literally Obliterated” “Decimate”; “Unleash Hell” – Unhinged!

“A lotta people runnin’ and a’hidin’ tonight

A lotta people won’t get no justice tonight”

Before anyone starts to wonder this isn’t an episode of “Countdown”; “I’ll have another F-15, please, Bob”! Instead, it’s just another day-in-the-life of the US president.

Iran called Trump’s bluff and he blinked. The Iran-US war is drifting into stalemate.

This “short-term excursion” hasn’t, to date, led to regime change, a civilian uprising and Iran remain in full control of their oil wealth. The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior Iranian leadership has failed to destroy the regime, and if anything their leadership is more entrenched.

If Trump and his military commanders has majored in geography they may have understood that whoever controlled the strait of Hormuz would likely win. In defense of Gen Dan Caine, he reportedly warned of the possibility that the strait would be closed, but Trump was unmoved, convinced he would win before that happened.

Casualties aside, one of the major consequences of Trump’s illegal war was inflation, which is ironic when your consider he was re-elected by majoring on Biden’s supposed inability to control the cost-of-living, inflation. He is now hoist on his own petard with the OECD forecasts a spike of inflation to 4.2% in the US, a 40% increase since he returned to office.

Still, Trump is unmoved; on 26 March he told us: “I’m the opposite of desperate. I don’t care.”

‘Iran called Trump’s bluff and he blinked. The Iran-US war is drifting into stalemate’

He also told Nato countries they were “cowards”, and that he “no longer needs” their help. The last part is especially interesting as they all said “no” when asked for the help Trump didn’t need?

What has been noticeably increasing is the violence of his speeches and posts. As the Guardian highlighted; “He has declared “victory” more than eight times, he has “won” more than 10 times, “winning” more than five times, and Iranian forces have been either “obliterated” or suffered “obliteration” more than six times. After stating on 16 March that the Iranian military had been “literally obliterated” and their leaders “gone”, he issued an ultimatum on 21 March that threatened “obliteration” of Iran’s power grid if the strait was not opened within 48 hours. “You’ll find out what’s gonna happen,” he said. “You’re gonna find out soon. It’s gonna be very good. Total decimation of Iran.” Trump has used the words “decimate” or “decimation” at least six times.

More recently, he threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power stations and fresh water plants if Tehran does not agree to peace terms “shortly”. This includes reopening the strait of Hormuz. If this doesn’t happen, US forces would destroy “all of their Electric Generating Plants, Oil Wells and Kharg Island (and possibly all desalinization plants!)”.

It should be noted in an already illegal war, destroying civilian infrastructure such as power and water facilities would be illegal under international humanitarian law and would probably constitute a war crime.

All of this is quite mild when compared with his most recent expletive laden rant, in which he appeared to lose any form of self-control. He followed that rant, saying: “The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night.”

Trump seems to be convinced that even if he is committing war crimes nothing will happen. Other commentators have scoffed when I compared him to Hitler, and whilst he has a way to go, he’s giving it a go.

‘Other commentators have scoffed when I compared him to Hitler, and whilst he has a way to go, he’s giving it a go’

Hitler, of course, cheated the Nuremberg trials, but many of his co-conspirators, including army commanders, Keitel and Jodl, and naval commander Raeder and Doenitz, were hung for their crimes

This then leads onto, what will US military commanders do if they are ordered to undertake missions that contravene international law?

There is the precedent of US soldiers who refused to take part in the 1968 My Lai massacre in Vietnam, including a helicopter pilot who threatened to shoot the perpetrators.

In his court martial, the officer who ordered his men to gun down hundreds of Vietnamese villagers, 2nd Lt William Calley, argued that he was only obeying orders, but the court ruled that was no defense as such orders were “palpably illegal”.

The question is whether officers who carried out orders to bomb Iranian power stations and bridges could argue that they did not know it was “palpably illegal”.

For his part, Trump has made it very clear how he would view any service personnel interpreting orders as illegal. In November, Democratic members of Congress published a video message telling US service members “you can refuse illegal orders, you must refuse illegal orders”, Trump responded on Truth Social accusing them of “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH”.

‘Trump responded on Truth Social accusing them of “SEDITIOUS BEHAVIOR, punishable by DEATH”’

I suspect that whatever Trump does there will be little in the way of repercussions. At this moment-in-time there is no one, and no body that can, or will hold him to account. Perhaps, in time, when the US rediscovers its moral compass, there might be a day of reckoning. Or, more likely, it will just be something that happened and we have moved on.

Of course, in the court of King Donald, nothing is ever what it seems, and there is continued talk of negotiated settlements. However, it takes two to agree a peace, and Tehran view the supposed peace entreaties as “excessive, unrealistic and irrational.”

There is also Israel to consider. They, most likely, will want Trump to continue persecuting the war. After all, it always better to let someone else pay the cost and for their troops to do the dying.

Elsewhere, UK PM Starmer, summed-up what all of America’s former allies are thinking: “This is not our war and we are not going to get dragged into it.”

That might be the view of a current labor leader, but it doesn’t chime with the thoughts of former labor PM Tony Blair, who believes the left has forged an “alliance with Islamists”, that this is simply the latest mutation of antisemitism.

You might remember “call me Tony” he was “the answer once”. Tony hobnobbed with the Spice Girls and Oasis, and, like them, had absolutely no substance.

It would appear that Tony is still rooted in those days, as a YouGov poll found as few as 12% of Britons support Israel’s actions in Gaza, whilst a majority supports an arms embargo on Israel, sanctions and the arrest of its leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, for war crimes. https://yougov.com/en-gb/articles/53115-two-years-into-the-gaza-conflict-record-numbers-of-britons-say-israeli-action-is-not-justified

‘As this charade is a thinly disguised property development venture, no doubt the Blair family fortune will become more bloated’

In the US the situation seems equally confused. Trump, who during campaigning in 2024, said that Jews who vote Democrat “hate Israel” and “hate their religion”. In the election, 71% of Jewish Americans voted for Kamala Harris (Democrat)!

Forty percent of these Jewish-Americans believe Israel’s military has committed genocide in Gaza, with 50% of under-35’s of the same view

Blair has always had a healthy respect for double standards and self-enrichment, and seems to see little wrong in the ongoing siege of Gaza, despite the fact that intentionally starving civilians is a war crime.

More pertinently, Blair is a member of the founding executive board of Trumps “Board of Peace” for Gaza, and praised Trump’s “bold and intelligent plan”, thanking him for his “leadership, determination and commitment”.

As this charade is a thinly disguised property development venture, no doubt the Blair family fortune will become more bloated.

It really quite frightening to see an ex-PM appearing to suffer from islamophobia.

Still, what else can we expect when…….

“No one will guide you,

Armagideon time”

A shorter piece today, as I am trying to be more concise and single-issue focused.

I plan to be in town next week, likely the West End. What days are best for you?

At the moment everything is about Trump and Iran.

He is very clearly unhinged, and unfit to be president. However, nothing will happen. America will continue to plumb the depths until he either dies or is voted out. There appears to be no one willing to stand-up to him, and although his popularity is sinking there is no obvious successor. His hold over the MAGA vote dominates Republican thinking, and the Democrats are still fragmented.

CNN has a poll summary, the latest shows his approval rating in the low 30s.

https://edition.cnn.com/polling/approval/trump-polls

Tonight is supposed to be the night when Iran is “obliterated” again, which could lead to war crimes. However, as with Israel’s behavior in Gaza, nothing will happen.

In “Have we returned to the 1930’s?” I compared the events that led to the rise of Fascism and Nazism with the rise of hard-right politicians today, and the first time around it didn’t end well. It won’t this time, either.

Lyrically, its “Armageddon Time” by The Clash

I’m not enjoying being right!

Philip.

@coldwarsteve

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

Click on the link to see all Brexit Bulletins:

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