The Times They Are A-Changin’: Searching for America 

“She said the man in the gabardine suit was a spy
I said “Be careful, his bowtie is really a camera””

Both America and the UK have travelled the same neoliberal path since 1980, and, whilst post-the rise of Trump, the US political scene has become more polarised, the same stark problems underly both countries.

Inequality, especially in terms of wealth, mushroomed from 1980 onwards. Then the ratio of total household wealth to GDP was around 200–250%, today  it is over 500%, equivalent to more than five years of annual GDP.  

Turning to income, the share of the top 1% has increased from about 10% in 1980 to about 20% today. 

Whilst this doubling is dramatic, it is nothing when compared to wealth; billionaires comprise C. 0.1% of the population, yet they own C.7% total US wealth, up from 1% in 1980. Moreover, the oligarchs, the twenty wealthiest families, have amassed a total wealth of 2.0 to 2.2% of the total, equivalent to about 12–13% of US GDP. 

When Forbes first published its list of the 400 wealthiest Americans in 1982, they had an estimated net worth of $92 billion; 0.8% percent of total U.S. wealth and 3.2% of GDP. 

In 2025 the 400 were worth $6.6 trillion; 3.7% of national wealth and 26%of GDP. 

Prior to Reagan, the US tax system was progressive, with high taxation on capital, income and inheritances were heavily taxed, in 1981 the top marginal income tax rate was 70%, by 1986 it was 28%. At a stroke, the US went from having the highest tax rate among industrialized countries to the lowest.  

‘in 1981 the top marginal income tax rate was 70%, by 1986 it was 28%’

The corporate tax rate was 50% post-WW2; in 2018 the Trump Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, reduced it to 21%. 

With this increasing wealth, the few have used it to buy influence. 

Billionaires accounted for 19% of total political spending during the 2024 federal election cycle. 

Elon Musk, bought Twitter in 2022. After Trump’s re-election in 2024, Musk, although unelected, became effectively America’s second most powerful official as his DOGE eviscerated large parts of the federal government. 

Elsewhere, Larry Ellison purchased CBS news, and is trying to take control of CNN, and Jeff Bezos, has purchased the Washington Post, as the oligarchs assume an increasing influence in the political discourse. 

In all instances, their purchase of media outlets has seen them tack far-rightwards, with increasingly  support for authoritarian politics and white supremacists. 

What has never been clear is where the oligarchs stand on Trump’s foolish Iran war. 

It appears that the US alternates between bombing and peace talks dependent on how the president feels.  

‘the US alternates between bombing and peace talks dependent on how the president feels’

What is increasingly obvious is the fact that bombing Iran into surrender wont happen. Yes, around 3,500 Iranians have been reported killed, and the country has suffered between $150bn and $270bn of damage.  

Despite this, Iran has a claim to victory. If their initial objective was survival, the regime, helped by its extensive and mountainous geography, has  maintained enough of a missile and drone capability to scare merchant shipping from using the strait of Hormuz.  

American expenditure has been exponential, estimated at $38bn: over 1,000 Tomahawk missiles and 1,100 Jassm cruise missiles. According to estimates by the CSIS thinktank, a third and a quarter of total stockpiles. The Tomahawks, which cost up to $3.6m each, might not be replaced until 2031. 

The stock of Patriot missile interceptors has also been heavily depleted, C.1,000, or 50% of the total US stockpile. 

All of this raises questions as to how well the US can continue to defend its bases in the Gulf. 

Trump has tried to shift the blame for this onto Ukraine, arguing that “so much was given” to Kyiv in military aid. Whereas, Ukraine was never given long-range cruise missiles, only Patriot air defense systems. 

The conflict has been spread to the Red Sea, with the Houthis, Iran’s allies in Yemen, imposing a blockade in an attempt to frustrate Saudi Arabia’s plans to redirect oil traffic. 

The US’s stated central war aim seems to be in constant flux, but it still centres around regime change, destroying Iran’s entire missile programme or, as most frequently stated, preventing the country from having a nuclear weapon. 

The problem Trumps is finding is that there seems to no way of achieving this , unless he is prepared to commit substantial ground forces.  

Peter Ricketts, a former UK national security adviser, said: “Until the US accepts it can’t get its way by bombing, Iran has effective leverage. Tehran can absorb the pain, and they know they can close the strait with the economic impact it has on the US.” 

“Until the US accepts it can’t get its way by bombing, Iran has effective leverage”

For Tehran, the US midterm elections in November, present an opportunity. The war is unpopular at home; only a third of all Americans support the war, according to a Reuters/Ipsos survey. However, 71% of Republican’ still support the conflict.  

Trump appears to be anticipating heavy losses in the midterms, as has been busy resurrecting his claim that the results of the 2020 election, which he lost to Joe Biden, were illegitimate. 

He claimed that US elections are “vulnerable to being rigged and stolen”, and that “the trust of the American people was lost” when he was defeated. 

Historically, incumbent parties underperform in midterm elections, and with Trump’s approval rating of 37%, losses Senate, the House of Representatives, as well as in state and local elections, appear certain. 

Or, at least, they should. 

Trump is fighting to push through the Save Act, which would allow federal government greater control over elections. Trump has also called for the federal government to take direct control of elections in some states, falsely claiming that his defeats there in 2020 were illegitimate. 

The Save Act requires voters to present their passport or birth certificate to register to vote, and then to provide photo ID from a narrow list of valid identifications to vote in person. This is expected to disproportionately impact Black, Native, elderly and student voters, of whom many are Democrats 

The legislation would also sharply constrain voting by mail, too. And it would require states to turn over their voter rolls to the federal government. 

This appears to be yet another example of Trump riding roughshod over the constitution. 

Ben Berwick, who leads Protect Democracy’s election law and litigation team pointed out that “we have an election system that is not run by the federal government. It’s run by states and local jurisdictions.” 

The president, he added, “really has no power over elections”.  

Where else can Trump turn?  

Lies…. 

Where else can Trump turn?  

Lies…. 

Iran is begging for a deal, and if they don’t accept our terms, we have loads of missiles left. If we run out, it’s Joe Biden’s fault. 

The economy is booming, and prices are down.  

Climate change is a hoax. Wind power caused a massive TV blackout during the Trump-Biden debate. Ironically, nobody remembers this because it didn’t happen. 

Solar power doesn’t work at night, and batteries don’t exist. As a result, California has “blackouts and brownouts every weekend”; it doesn’t.  

The diminution of air quality caused by the wildfires in Canada weren’t caused by climate change. 

There is also the threat of Communism. 

Everyone who doesn’t agree is a communist.  

‘Oh no, I’m a Communist!’

This is perfect for his MAGA clan, who hate everyone; immigrant, liberals, scientists et al. What’s more, there is no reason with them, if it suits their prejudices and interests, it’s true. Research, data, statistical evidence are all be dismissed, their perception is their reality.  

This is totalitarianism; deny that existence of objective facts, reality is whatever the leader wants it to be. The actions and the existence of  ICE is simply the icing on the cake.  

All of this madness causes so much suffering. 

1.2 million Americans died from Covid — a number that would have been much lower if MAGA misinformation hadn’t caused so many people to refuse vaccination.  

Climate denial and hostility to renewable energy mean more pollution and an increasingly backward looking economy. 

The Iran war has highlighted the shortcoming of America’s supposed military might, exacerbated by depleting stocks of weapons that supported this. 

Oh no, I’m a Communist! 

“Then raise the scarlet standard high.
Within its shade we’ll live and die,”

This piece has been in the writing for some weeks, as it keeps getting overtaken by events closer to home.

However, the US is too big to ignore, and Trump, love him or loathe him bestrides the global stage.

When I thought about this editorial it struck me that Putin’s Russia and Trump’s US are very similar.

Both are prosecuting needless wars that are costing them, and their countries dearly.

Both are totalitarians, although Trump is playing catch-up here.

Both have likely amassed significant wealth in-office, although Putin is more circumspect about his.

Lastly, both have a coterie of uber-rich oligarchs who seek their favour.

As for our new PM, how will he deal with Trump?

His predecessor appeared to work on the basis of lip-service. Perhaps the answer is to treat him like a naughty child: ignore his tantrums until he tires of them?

Whichever Burnham decides it is sure to be interesting.

Lyrically, we start with “America” by Simon & Garfunkel, and end with “The Red Flag” by Jim Connel.

Enjoy!

Philip   

@coldwarsteve

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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