Capital.com Pulse Report: When Market Conditions Changed, Traders Changed With Them, but Not All in the Same Way
New analysis of more than 80 million trades on the Capital.com platform shows how traders adapted to shifting H1 conditions, offering a readout on the themes, and instruments that could shape market participation in H2 2026.
Capital.com, the global online trading platform, today published its H1 2026 Pulse Report, drawing on analysis of more than 80 million closed trades between January and June 2026 across Capital.com’s global platform, of which approximately 32.2 million (around 40%) were placed across: Germany, the Netherlands, Poland, Italy, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United Arab Emirates.
The report examines how traders in these seven key markets responded to two structurally different periods within the same half-year, and finds that the response varied considerably depending on where traders were based and which instruments they favoured. As traders approach the end of the second half of the year, the report offers insight into how retail traders may respond when market narratives shift.
Q1: macro uncertainty drew traders to familiar instruments
The first quarter of 2026 was shaped by macro uncertainty: gold reached successive price highs in January as central bank purchases, dollar weakness, and geopolitical tension drove safe-haven demand. In February, regulatory uncertainty around cryptocurrency* derivatives prompted a withdrawal of activity rather than engagement.
March brought an oil supply shock that produced the most extreme single-month trading volume growth, around +700%, in the H1 2026 observation period. Across these events, the Capital.com analysis finds a consistent pattern of traders concentrating into familiar, liquid instruments, gold in particular, with activity reflecting news-driven, reactive positioning rather than directional conviction.
Q2: clearer signals shifted activity towards US tech
The second quarter told a different story. As the macro events that had driven Q1’s concentrated activity receded, the technology sector index, the Nasdaq 100 (US Tech 100), became the standout instrument category among traders. Even as gold retained its top position as the most traded instrument by volume throughout Q2, traders moved into the US technology sector in May and June. This was largely driven by AI-driven earnings results and a resolution of trade tariff uncertainty, both of which provided traders with directional signals coupled with fundamental support.
So pronounced was the shift that the US Tech 100 became the second most traded market on the platform in Q2 2026, after Gold, with volumes reaching $292.4 billion (25.5% of platform volume), up 48% in May and a further 37% in June. In the UK specifically, the US Tech 100 ranked ahead of Gold, making it the top-traded instrument by volume, at 33% of the UK’s own total trading volume.
Commenting on traders’ rising exposure to the US Tech 100, Kyle Rodda, Senior Market Analyst at Capital.com, said:
“Remarkably strong earnings growth from artificial intelligence companies sparked a very strong rebound on Wall Street during the first half, a move that was compounded by an easing of geopolitical risks as the ill-fated memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran temporarily lowered crude prices. The rapid moves in US indices, especially those providing exposure to tech companies, generated significant trading activity in those instruments.
The themes in the second half have shifted slightly, although geopolitical risks and company earnings continue to be market movers. US Federal Reserve policy and the path forward for interest rates has become a bigger driver, especially as US inflation proves to be sticky but the labor market continues to deteriorate. ”
Commenting on H1 2026 trading behavior patterns, Rupert Osborne, CEO UK, Capital.com, said:
“What the first half of 2026 showed clearly is that the conditions traders face shape their decisions in predictable ways. When markets are uncertain, traders tend to crowd into familiar safe-haven assets like gold and react to the news. When the signals are clearer, as they were in Q2, they spread their trading across a wider range of instruments. Understanding which environment you’re operating in matters for the quality of the decisions you make.”
Same conditions, different responses across markets
The report also finds significant variation in how traders across different countries responded to the same conditions. The United Kingdom was the only market where US technology indices were the most actively traded instrument for the half-year period as a whole, which reflects UK clients’ well-established preference for indices and equities over commodities. In the United Arab Emirates, which accounts for the largest share of client trading volumes across the seven markets, gold was the dominant instrument throughout, representing 54% of total UAE trading volume.
Gold’s share of UAE trading is likely to reflect a long-standing regional preference for gold as an asset.
Germany recorded 5.6 million trades in H1 2026, making it the most active European market in the analysis by number of trades. The Germany 40 was the third most traded instrument in Germany, accounting for 11% of total volume ($14.2B), alongside global macro instruments led by Gold at 42% ($52.8B) and US Tech 100 at 22% ($27.2B).
The report notes that German traders showed a broader instrument mix than most other European markets, with domestic equity engagement running alongside commodity and technology activity throughout the half-year.
Commenting on European trading behavior in H1 2026, Christoforos Soutzis, CEO Europe, Capital.com, said:
“One of the more consistent findings across European markets in H1 2026 is that traders maintained engagement with regional instruments, even as global macro themes dominated overall activity. That combination of local familiarity and global macro engagement is a characteristic of how European retail traders approach market participation, and it remained consistent across both quarters of the half-year.”
Australia: time zones shaped engagement
Australia presented a distinct profile: the Australia 200 domestic index (ASX 200) and the Japan 225 (Nikkei 225) both featured in Australia’s top five instruments by volume, the only market in the analysis to include two Asia-Pacific indices alongside global instruments. The report attributes this to timing, since the primary events of H1 2026, including gold’s January run, the February crypto disruption and the March oil shock, all occurred during European and US trading hours. This meant Australian traders engaged with them predominantly through overnight or early-morning sessions.
The report also found the following:
Trading volume and trade count both increased. The report finds that total trading volume rose 27.7% half-on-half to $2.45 trillion. Closed trades increased 47.8%, from 54.7 million in H2 2025 to 80.9 million in H1 2026. Average monthly active traders rose 9.6% to approximately 96,115. Overall, this means the H1 increase was driven by higher activity per trader rather than higher participation.
News-driven oil activity showed how quickly themes can reverse. US Crude Oil Spot volume rose 700% in March during the oil supply shock, then declined 10% in April, 5% in May and 37% in June as the risk premium unwound.
Crypto* was the exception to the volatility rule. BTC (Bitcoin) / USD (U.S. Dollar) volatility reached 17.9%, its highest level of H1 2026 (below the platform-wide peak of 36.1%, reached by oil in March), yet traders reduced activity as counterparty uncertainty and a broader retreat from risk assets made conditions harder to read.
The full Capital.com H1 2026 Pulse Report, including per-market instrument data, risk management analysis, and detailed country profiles, is available here.
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