The Times They are A-Changin’: Austerity and Brexit Revisited

“Formidiable, formidiable, formidiable

Free emparted”

Brexit truly is the never ending story, it just refuses to go away, which is no bad thing, it is a disaster that has set the country back, and needs to be reversed.

As I wrote in “Brexit RIP While Inequality Flourishes”, the latest YouGov poll shows that, overall, 63% of us would vote to rejoin the EU with 37% seeking to remain outside.

The 37% who wish to remaining outside the EU, is almost in-line with Dominic Cummings pre-referendum theory of one-third being diehard remainers, another third diehard leavers, which was why he targeted the undecided third.

The undecided were swung by the desire to be better off, to have a better NHS, which, they were told would happen once we were free of Brussels interference.

What they hadn’t appreciated was, that without the Tory austerity, which continued until 2022, their lot would have been considerably better anyway.

Research by the University of Oxford found that C.23% of all “austerity generation” British children have lived-in poverty for at least six of their first 11 years of life as a direct legacy of this policy.

These policies, which included freezing working age benefits levels and the two-child limit, had, by 2021, stripped about £37bn a year from welfare spending. The direct result of this was to take thousands of pounds a year out of low-income family budgets, resulting in hundreds of thousands more children living in poverty.

These children will go onto suffer “significant social problems” that could cause long-term harms to their health, education and life chances.

‘children will go onto suffer “significant social problems” that could cause long-term harms to their health, education and life chances’

The impact of the two-child benefit cap was highlighted recently, when the current labor government did away with it, a decision that is estimated to take an estimated 450,000 children out of poverty by the end of the decade.

Even today, the Tories, seemingly hellbent on continuing displaying how much they dislike those deemed to be “poor”, likely because they vote for someone else, with plans to reimpose the cap. This, along with reallocating money earmarked for net zero projects, will be, in the words of their leader, Kemi Badenoch, required in order for the UK to “reassert” itself as a global power, with the Tories proposing “the largest net increase in British troops under any government since the second world war.”

Now, wait for this… The pledge would involve recruiting 6,000 full-time soldiers and 14,000 reservists. The Kremlin will be s******g themselves, Hesgeth will be overwhelmed!

Seriously, putting 450,000 children back into poverty for 6,000 full-time soldiers and 14,000 reservists! Words fail me.

Of course, these poverty numbers will likely deteriorate as Trumps’ foolhardy war ravages already overstretched economies.

The Resolution Foundation estimates that even with lower-income households receiving a real-terms increase in their benefits, market-forecasts for the rise in energy prices, could mean that average income growth for the poorest 20% will now be 1.2% this year, revised down from 2.8%.

‘The pledge would involve recruiting 6,000 full-time soldiers and 14,000 reservists. The Kremlin will be s******g themselves’

The abolition of the two-child cap means that families in the bottom half of the income distribution with three or more children, will see 7.7% per cent income growth, compared to 0% for poorer families with fewer than three children.

The biggest shock will be felt further up the income scale, who could see their income fall by 0.6 per cent, £480. Prior to the crisis they had been expected to benefit from 0.9% per cent growth. Source: https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/press-releases/higher-energy-prices-480/

Turning to Brexin, ministers are planning to fundamentally reshape Britain’s relationship with the EU, with new legislation that could result in the UK signing up to EU single market rules without a normal parliamentary vote.

A new bill, which will bring into force the food and drink trade deal with the EU, will contain powers enabling the government to dynamically align with Europe on areas where it has already made agreements. But it will also allow the UK to quickly implement evolving single market rules if it determines it is in the national interest, without having to face full parliamentary scrutiny each time.

This aggressive tactic appears to be in recognition of the importance of our trading relationship with the EU, and acknowledges the economic damage caused by Brexit. In their March 2025 forecast, the Office for Budget Responsibility estimated leaving reduced long-run productivity by 4% and reduced exports and imports by 15% relative to remaining in the EU, in its most recent.

PM Starmer said closer alignment with Europe was necessary in an uncertain world where black swan events have become normal. He said: “Looking forward, it also means a closer economic relationship with our European allies, because Brexit did deep damage to the economy, and the opportunities we now have to strengthen our security and cut the cost of living are simply too big to ignore.”

The Conservatives’ shadow business secretary, Andrew Griffith, said Starmer was unable to accept the decision of the 2016 referendum, with parliament “reduced to a spectator while Brussels sets the terms”.

‘Farage will never be able to admit that the real betrayal of the people was Vote “Leave” being built on lies’

Speaking at a press conference in Westminster, Nigel Farage, the Reform UK leader, said Starmer wanted to create closer links with “a declining part of the global economy”.

Asked about the plans, Farage said: “To tie ourselves ever closer to it makes no sense in economic terms. In democratic terms, it is a total betrayal of the Brexit vote 10 years ago, and it is also a complete breach of the labor manifesto and a further devaluation of parliament.”

Farage will never be able to admit that the real betrayal of the people was Vote “Leave” being built on lies.

Memory is a funny thing; Nige maintains that vote “leave” won by a huge margin, whereas it was much more even; 52% to 48%.

In his world, Brexit, which, had been perfect in its conception, was betrayed by Tory governments, with the worst offender being Boris Johnson, who led the Vote Leave campaign.

As Friedrich Nietzsche wrote: “The advantage of a bad memory is that one enjoys several times the same good things for the first time.”

“Tis the lucky lucky penny penny penny Buys the pearly dew drips soaks”

Brexin is the new Brexit; you heard it here first!

As labor prepares the ground to realign itself with Europe, there will be much fun to be had as the quotes from anguished Tories and Reform members hit the headlines. It will be fascinating to see how they defend the indefensible.

It would be the old chestnuts: Britannia, sovereignty, swathes of immigrants and the fact that Brexit was executed properly.

What is more worrying is the Tories’ pledge to reinstate the two-child benefit cap. This really is little more than the other old chestnut: ”people are only poor because they choose to be.”  

Aside from putting 450,000 kids back into poverty, the demographic impact will overwhelm pensions and the NHS.

All of this for 20,000 more soldiers, of which the majority are reservists.

It’s all too stupid for words!

Lyrically, for readers dreaming of our EU return, we look to the dream pop of one of my favourites, the Cocteau Twins. We open with “Pandora (For Cindy)”, and play-out with “”Pearly Dewdrops’ Drops.”

Dream on!

Philip.

@coldwarsteve

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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