The Times They Are A-Changin’: Does PM Burham Stand A Chance? 

 “Whoever controls the media, controls the mind” (1) 

The UK media is the mouthpiece of right-wing politicians. 

They champion homeowners, hard workers, entrepreneurs and the traditional family. Benefits claimants, government bureaucrats, leftists and foreign influences including the EU and immigrants are the enemy. 

The relationship between them and right-wing parties work in two-way: each feeds, encourages and sharpens the other. Brexit is an example of this, as the media and right-wing press and right-wing politicians, pushed each other to demand “leave”. The referendum result vindicated their political and social instincts, encouraging them to see the world in ever more binary terms. In 2016, the Mail famously described three judges who had ruled that parliament should have more say over the Brexit process as “enemies of the people”.  

Following are examples of their hyperbolic, explosive and divisive headlines 

• “Starmer’s Britain is descending into anarcho-tyranny,”  

• Tommy Robinson praised for his “rough-diamond charisma”.  

• “I prefer foreign autocracies to labor’s Britain”. 

• “labor to unleash up to 12,000 shoplifters,”  

• “[Angela] Rayner’s workers’ rights police get power to force their way into offices”. 

• “One in 12 in London is illegal migrant.”  

• “Middle class will lose out as benefits claimants get energy help” 

• “Up to 15 relatives enter UK for every care worker despite curbs” 

The Daily Mail dominates, and has been the training ground for the editors of the Daily Telegraph, the Times and the Sunday Times. 

These papers all share the same preoccupations; crime, immigration, Islam, benefits fraud, the supposed threat of trans rights, the supposed decay of public and private morality, the supposed rottenness of liberalism, leftism and “wokeness”, the supposed promise of hard-right Toryism and Reform. 

Their coverage has shifted the political centre-ground to the right; what were unthinkable policies from labor and, to a lesser extent the Tories, are now become mainstream, meaning that what was previously unacceptable has been legitimised. 

If there is a battle amongst right-wing, it is who can be the most extreme. 

This week, Reform’s equalities spokesperson, the former Conservative home secretary, Suella Braverman, suggested that our former colonies,  of whom many suffered slavery, exploitation and subjugation by us, should pay us reparations: “former colonies should pay the British back for the considerable investment, effort and contribution that this country made which laid the foundations for many flourishing democracies today”. 

The political discourse on the right now, work on the basis that the answer is immigration, what’s the question? 

This glib and bigoted attitude demeans the real problems, such as poverty. 

‘the answer is immigration, what’s the question?’

They exploit and weaponise the economic struggles of “white working-class people” against predominantly working-class immigrants, but do nothing to alleviate the problems of poverty.  

Perhaps it is cheaper to keep people impoverished, rather than upsetting political donors with taxes or other policies that might address our inequality? 

As we saw once labor took power in 2024, the media were quick to rubbish anything they achieved. At times their headlines and articles were simply vicious, completely ignoring the fact that the Starmer  administration inherited 14-yrs of differing Tory failures, not least their beloved Brexit. 

When the administration did achieve something it was either never enough, or just glossed over. 

Immigration and “small boats” was an escalating problem labor inherited. Nowhere has this media written about how labor have increased arrests of people smugglers by 55%, that asylum decisions are at a 24-year high and removals at their highest level in almost a decade. Or that, the number of people housed in asylum hotels had fallen by almost 30%. 

The economy that Andy Burnham will inherit, whilst not robust, is still managing to grow despite the travails caused by the Iran war.  

ONS statistics show that GDP rose 0.1% in May, whilst over the three months to May GDP growth was 0.7%. 

Unfortunately for Burnham, the Resolution Foundation suggest that over half of the £23.6bn in “headroom” that Reeves accounted for in the spring statement will be wiped out by the Iran conflict. 

labor inherited an economy struggling to recover from austerity, Brexit, the inflation shock and Liz Truss. 

‘over half of the £23.6bn in “headroom” that Reeves accounted for in the spring statement will be wiped out by the Iran conflict’

Whilst labor has managed to restore some seriousness to fiscal and macroeconomic management, they were elected to deal with falling living standards, and deteriorating public services.  

The reason for underdelivering might be due to them being too cautious, which may have prevented investment and reform without which productivity, and therefore fiscal sustainability, has not improved.  

The overall problem doesn’t change; how do we deliver better services without increasing tax? 

Perhaps the solution is a remodelled tax system that raises the revenue required for without creating economic damage and distributing the burden more fairly.  

Thid could be achieved by emphasising tax on capital rather than just income.  

Business rates are a tax on productive activity in the wrong places; the treatment of high incomes, capital gains, inheritance and pension tax reliefs are hard choice but soft targets. There is nothing to suggest amending these would inhibit growth, despite what the right-wing media tells us. 

Europe should also be a focus. Aligning ourselves with them is a sensible alternative when faced with Trump’s America, and Brexit-induced trade friction has made us poorer. Over time, moving closer to the single market is an economic necessity. 

The basis for Burnhamism, devolution aside, is the acceptance that, from the 1980s onwards,  neoliberalism  had achieved little other than creating inequality by prioritising private capital over labor. 

‘from the 1980s onwards,  neoliberalism  had achieved little other than creating inequality by prioritising private capital over labor’ 

One of the driver for this imbalance was the defenestration of trade unions. Yes, they had become too powerful, but now employers have too much power which has resulted in the “gig economy”. 

It is estimated that 1.7 million people class themselves as regular gig economy workers. This can be as high as 4.4 million as people dip in and out. 

The sector is estimated to be worth C.£20bn p.a., with London as the primary hub, accounting for 24.8% of “gig” workers. 

Demographically, 60% are aged between 16 and 34. Unfortunately, as a studies from Leeds University Business School and others show, 52% of gig workers earn below the UK minimum wage, averaging roughly £8.97 per hour. 

Privatisation, has been a boom for rentiers and equally painful for consumers, with the majority providing sub-standard services at premium rates. 

Nowhere is this better demonstrated than in the water sector. 

‘52% of gig workers earn below the UK minimum wage, averaging roughly £8.97 per hour’

If every Englishman’s home is his castle, then his garden is his passion. Unfortunately, at the first sign of sun water providers put in-place hosepipe bans, imposing fines of C.£1,000. 

This follows one of the wettest winters since comparable records began in 1836, with the Met Office recording 13% more rain than the long-term seasonal average. 

Research by Greenpeace UK shows that water companies are wasting 5x water through leaky pipes than a nationwide hosepipe ban. Water companies lose 2.87bn litres of water a day from leaky pipes in England and Wales, 20% of all water pumped through the network. 

By comparison, according to analysis from Ofwat, the industry regulator, a network-wide hosepipe ban would save 4% of water, C.577m litres a day. 

Simply their infrastructure is falling apart, due primarily to prioritising shareholders’ dividends over investment. It is more than 30-yrs since a major new reservoir was built in England and Wales. According to the Climate Change Committee, the government’s climate advisers, England faces a potential water-supply shortfall of more than 5bn litres a day by the mid-2050s. 

Still, what price failure? Quite high actually. 

‘he needs to focus on the cost-of-living. Find a way around that, and he can buy himself time’

Ruth Jefferson, the CEO of Wessex Water, received a 14% pay rise in October, from £590,000 to £670,000, before other benefits, whilst employees received a 3.5%. Her pay is 18x that of the company’s median employee. 

Interestingly, Wessex Water paid Jefferson this despite the company being banned from paying bonuses. 

The business, which is Malaysian-owned, revealed in its report that it expected to fall foul of the bonus ban “particularly in relation to environmental and operational metrics”. 

Another water company, Anglian Water, awarded its chief executive, Mark Thurston, a £500,000 “retention payment”, despite being banned from paying bonuses. They claim that they can do this as the bonus was not linked to performance. 

Perhaps they meant underperformance? 

Burnham seems to have the right ideas and priorities, but he will be able to implement them in the face of consistent media criticism? 

He won’t have the luxury of time, and he needs to focus on the cost-of-living. Find a way around that, and he can buy himself time. 

“Well, the clock says it’s time to close now, 

 I know I have to go now”  

Notes: 

1. Jim Morrison, poet and singer with The Doors 

Well, justice was seen to be done. Argentina met their match in a wonderful Spanish team who, unlike their opponents played the game the right way.

Spain prove how simple football is keep the ball, pass and move…

England are also to be congratulated, third-place is our best effort since 1966. All this talk about how we should have won it, the manager got it wrong, etc. is noise. We were never good enough to win the cup.

As always expectation exceeded what was possible.

Let’s hope we aren’t saying the same about our new PM. I was going to say in 12-months time but he won’t get that long. I expect his honeymoon period to be over by autumn.

Not that the right-wing media will give him that long; their assault started before he took office, with in-depth criticism of what he might do. Also, Gilt yields rose: the 10-year was up 5 to 8 bps to a high of 5.04% and the 30-year increased by 8 to 9 bps, reaching around 5.75%, based on Burnham hinting at “flexibility” in fiscal rules.

Cue talk of the country going bankrupt!

Empty vessels have always made the most noise!

Lyrically, we play out with “Soul Kitchen” by The Doors

Philip.

@coldwarsteve

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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