The Times They Are A-Changin’: Hate and War

“Hate and war, the only things we got today
And if I close my eyes, it will not go away”  

The culture war is becoming increasingly intense with ongoing rejection of DEI, and claims of “two-tier policing”. Commentators cite numerous reasons for this: immigration, concerns over housing, cultural dilution, basic fairness.  

But, the overriding issue appears to be the claim that equality has gone too far. Black people are being prioritised over white people. Or, in the words Nigel Farage, there is “a two-tier culture in this country, where the rights and privileges of white people matter less than those of ethnic minorities”.  

On the street this is expressed in complaints about not getting a job because it will probably go to an (unqualified) ethnic minority, or their child not getting into their chosen university because their place will go to a brown or black kid to fill a “quota”. 

Despite this, I still believe that the majority of Brits aren’t racists, they have simply been worn down by the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, and are being inflamed by right-wing extremists. 

Some of these extremists hail from the US and are echoing Trump’s foreign policy doctrine of undermining European democracies.  Elon Musk has long been Mr “Rent-a-post” but, more worryingly VP Vance took said that Henry Nowak’s death would not have happened if “generations of European elites had stood their ground against the politics of self-hatred and the mass invasion of migrants”. 

‘they have simply been worn down by the ongoing cost-of-living crisis, and are being inflamed by right-wing extremists’

Clearly a large number of downtrodden white people live in what is categorised as poverty, but there are far more people from ethnic minorities living in “very deep poverty”. These minorities are also disproportionately more policed than their white counterparts and more likely to be prosecuted. 

Still, when the did the truth get in the way of the narrative? 

Another favourite narrative of the right and their fawning media is labor’s economic inability. The Telegraph created a story of forthcoming bankruptcy based on our outstanding debt being close to £3trn and ex-World Bank economist Ken Rogoff saying it’s a 50/50 call on a UK debt crisis concluding its 100% likely we will need an IMF bail-out.  

Rogoff, whilst being a celebrated economist, is firmly in the neoliberal camp. During the 2010 election campaign, he contributed to an open letter to The Sunday Times endorsing the Conservative Party and Shadow Chancellor George Osborne’s demands for greater austerity. 

Everyone knows we have substantial problems, but, these are not due to the shortcomings of the incumbent labor government, they are the legacy issue, based on continual neoliberal policies, burdensome bureaucracy, squandered opportunities, increased energy vulnerabilities stemming from decisions made over the past 40-50 years, and the consequences of the recent debt binge during QE and Covid. 

‘ its 100% likely we will need an IMF bail-out’

And, of course, there is Brexit. 

During the referendum campaign, remain was mocked for “project fear”, warning that Brexit would reduce GDP by 6%. Today, that can be described as optimistic, with estimates suggesting that GDP has fallen between 6% and 8%, whilst investment is down by up to 18%.  

The OBR found that trade is on course to fall by 15%, with 85% of importers and exporters reporting Brexit related problems.  

Underlying the “leave” campaign was the same currency of fear and loathing that continues to this day. There was Farage’s “breaking point” poster, with its brown-skinned men apparently massing on our borders. Another advert implied that 76m Turks would soon be able to come into Britain via the EU. This was simply racism and xenophobia, but it worked. 

Ten years on, Farage, who now rarely mentions Brexit, is complaining of “anti-white prejudice.”  

To the right of Reform we have Restore Britain, a party that is endorsed by white supremacists and neo-Nazis. Previously, British far-right parties occupied the fringes, Brexit invited them in and legitimised hitherto extremism. 

Restore’s policies embrace racist nativism, including deporting millions of people. Their supporters argue that minority ethnic politicians such as Kemi Badenoch should not be allowed to sit in parliament. 

‘To the right of Reform we have Restore Britain, a party that is endorsed by white supremacists and neo-Nazis’

In the forthcoming Makerfield byelection polls show that Restore could win 10% of the vote. 

There is clearly a desire for change in the constituency, in last month’s local elections, Reform bested labor by 50-27%. 

Two weeks ago, Survation showed labor ahead in the polls by 3-points, 43-40 per cent. A more recent Survation poll puts Burnham’s lead at 10-points. 

This appears to driven by two things; labor are dominating the progressive vote (49 out of 52 per cent), secondly, Reform’s support is being cannibalised by Restore.  

Given the lead Reform had going into the byelection defeat would be a major blow. Polls and last month’s local elections show that its support has slipped since last summer. Insurgent parties need momentum, and losing in Makerfield, following on from their defeat in Gorton & Denton, would add to the perception that support for Reform and Farage has plateaued.   

In addition, there is the feeling that Farage’s incendiary comments over the Novak murder might have been a misstep too far. 

The response to Farage’ s comment that the British people, should respond with “pure, cold rage”, was a riot in Southampton, where a mix of angry local people and self-promoting white nationalists threw bins and other objects at police, leaving many residents terrified. 

‘Farage’s incendiary comments over the Novak murder might have been a misstep too far’

During PMQ’s Farage, rather than condemning the violence – despite increasingly loud calls from his fellow MPs –  predicted that the “anger” in Southampton would get considerably worse without action to curb what he said was institutionally biased policing. 

For once the PM stepped-up, reminding everyone that Nowak’s father had explicitly asked that his son’s death was not exploited to create division. Farage had ignored him and done just that. “It shows exactly who he is,” Starmer said. 

Luke Tryl, of the thinktank More in Common, said there was the risk that some voters would make a direct connection between Farage’s call for “pure, cold rage” and the scenes in Southampton, saying: “Violence is a red line. People may want a tough approach on issues like immigration but there is very little space for what can be perceived outright nastiness or cruelty.” 

‘Violence is a red line’

Restore is to the right of Reform, Farage and other party members are trying to combat this with increasingly extreme and incoherent language.  

Zia Yusuf, the party’s home affairs spokesperson, wrote on social media: “Recent events demonstrate why I view the Tory and labor politicians who created the burning injustice of modern Britain as traitors to their country,” he posted on X last weekend. “A reckoning is coming.” 

Another user replied: “You sound a bit fascisty, Zia.” 

You see, we just don’t like that sort of thing. 

“And I wanna be anarchist
I get pissed, destroy” 

Some familiar themes this week, but, perhaps that comes from saying the right things in years gone by.

As things become increasingly incendiary, I can’t help continuing to believe that the British electorate will see Farage, Reform and Restore off.

The majority of the public are far-minded decent people, who are fed-up. They are fed-up of being ripped off by utility provider enriching the few at their expense, whilst we all suffer sub-standard services.

They are fed-up of feeling increasingly poorer every month.

They are fed-up of politicians promising the earth and delivering nothing.

They are fed-up of a much vaunted Brexit that has delivered nothing other than sovereignty, which isn’t much use when your weekly shop keeps going up in cost.

This has all been a longtime coming.

As John Robb wrote about the rise of punk in 1976: “The warm haze of the early seventies was staggering into a hangover and the backdrop of gnarled buildings and fading empire blues hung in the air with an incoming recession and the cold shiver of desperation and the security of jobs for life slipping away”.

Farage is a comic book character, all pomposity, bullshit, and deep-down genuinely unpleasant.

As for the American’s, one look over the pond shows what a Reform government might look like. Racism is still baked-in parts of that country. As for VP Vance, well there was also Kenny Everett’s “Major-General Cheeseburger!”

Elon Musk is from South Africa; need I say more….

You see, when it comes to it, we just don’t like that kind of thing.

This week we celebrate 50-yrs of punk.

“Punk was a statement of authenticity that couldn’t be adopted as the flavor of the month. Like the blues, punk was the people’s music, made for the people by the people. …Like jazz, punk was an expression of soul, one person’s sense of life to confirm another’s … Like all true poetry, punk plugged into to the rhythm of life, the heartbeat of desire transposed into the dreams of a generation.”

Penny Rimbaud (Crass) Shibboleth – my revolting life.

We open with “Hate & War” by The Clash“. There was only one possible ending, Anarchy in the U.K.” by Sex Pistols.

Enjoy!

Philip.

@coldwarsteve

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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