The Times They Are A-Changin’: Reform is the Answer

“Questions questions

Give me no answers”

In 2024, labor took 63% of seats on only 34% of the vote. Put more simply, our democracy gave the government two-thirds representation in parliament, based on one-third of the votes.

In July 2020 I wrote an article entitles: “Democracy is when the people keep a government in check”. The title was a quote from Aung San Suu Kyi, a Burmese politician, diplomat, author, and a 1991 Nobel Peace Prize laureate.

Unfortunately, in our democracy nothing could be further from the truth.

A more accurate reflection of our first-past-the post electoral system might be this from Thomas Jefferson: “a democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where 51 percent of the people may take away the rights of the other 49”.

“a democracy is nothing more than mob rule, where 51 percent of the people may take away the rights of the other 49”

Beyond our interpretation of democratic elections, once in-power the PM has, what me be described as top-down government, with too much power is vested in the executive, the “Leader”. Whilst our MPs are elected virtually all of them poll ess than 50%. Once in parliament they are obliged to follow the leaders line, this is enforced by the whips.

This, effectively concentrates power into one persons’ hand, often referred to as a dictatorship. If the Leader has a majority, they do what they wish and any internal dissent is whipped out by the system.

The absurdity of all this is highlighted by labor’s 2024 election victory. One-third of the electorate gave PM Starmer an absolute majority of 174; basically he can rule however he wants.

Whilst our first-past-the-post system is hardly true democracy, it served a two-party system. In 2019 the Conservative won 365, receiving 43.6% of the votes cast, with labor winning 203 on 32.2%

In total C.75% of the votes and 87% of the seats were shared by the two main parties.

Today, the failure of both parties, has seen voters casting around for alternatives. The latest YouGov survey shows:

1. Reform: 24%

2. Conservative: 19%

3. labor: 18%

4. Greens: 18%

5. LibDems: 14% Source: https://yougov.com/en-gb/trackers/voting-intention

With 326 required for a majority, the only feasible conclusion is a Reform / Tory coalition.

This is, of course, a prediction based on what those surveyed today, said.

I have written before that support for Reform is peaking, based on the fact that there current support is already ahead of the country’s natural level of racism. This is borne out in a recent survey by the leading psephologist John Curtice, which also suggested that Reform could struggle to push its poll ratings higher.

Their support is amongst socially conservative voters, who voted for Brexit are older, male and with fewer qualifications. Only 9% are graduates, and 40% attained qualifications below A-level standard.

‘Their support is amongst socially conservative voters, who voted for Brexit are older, male and with fewer qualifications’

More notable was their attitudes to social issues; 67% of Reform believe migrants are bad for the economy, with 75% thinking they undermine the UK’s culture, more than double the respective figures of 33% and 35% for the overall population.

Similarly, 88% of Reform backers say equal opportunities for transgender people have “gone too far”, against 48% of the general public. Of Reform supporters, 52% expressed the same view about lesbian, gay and bisexual people and 51% about black and Asian people. Nationally, the figures for these were 27% and 17%.

Irrespective of whether support for Reform has peaked, our political scene has changed and the electoral system must recognize this, making the introduction of proportional representation (PR) inevitable. In a democracy, it should never have been possible for a party with a minority of the vote winning a seeping majority.

Another area that requires reform is fundraising and donations.

The big-2 have always led the way until the rise of Reform. The party’s leader Nigel Farage is largely responsible for the breakdown in trust in the system, creating a grey area between personal profit and political fundraising.

‘Nigel Farage is largely responsible for the breakdown in trust in the system, creating a grey area between personal profit and political fundraising’

The latest, and most prominent of his possible transgressions, is the £5m personal donation he received from Christopher Harborne, the Thai-based crypto billionaire. Farage has given differing reasons for this, but has continually denied being bought or promising favours. Despite that, the party is proposing a “cryptoassets and digital finance” bill will cut crypto capital gains tax to 10%, force the Treasury to build a bitcoin reserve fund and allow taxes to be paid in crypto.

Of course, none of this is illegal, and voters are seemingly immune to it. Donald Trump, who has done more to monetise the presidency than anyone I can remember, once said: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn’t lose any voters.”

Perhaps voters simply assume there is a degree of corruption in all politicians?

Or, more likely, their desire for an alternative to the status quo is too overwhelming.

The Makerfield byelection is likely to become an inflection point in our politics.

‘voters simply assume there is a degree of corruption in all politicians’

labor are polling at 43% with Reform on 40%. The rest are nowhere to be seen, with the exception of Restore Britian on 7%.

Tactically, Restore could cannibalise Reform’s vote, which could help what appears to be an anti-Reform bloc of progressive voters voting labor to defeat Reform.

labor have held the seat since the 1900s, the PM is seen as a liability, with voters saying: “He is not a strong enough leader”; “He’s not got the public behind him, I don’t think, normal people like us.”

In addition, there are several local issues at play; floods on New Year’s Day 2025 effected several areas of the constituency, with residents forced out of their homes for months.

Ironically, voters don’t appear to be put-off by the Reform’s climate policies, which include scrapping net zero and ending renewable energy subsidies.

In another part of the constituency, villagers have a 25,000-tonne dump of illegal waste to endure, and public transport is an issue – with no Metrolink tram service, it can take an hour to reach Manchester city centre on trains and buses.

Another issue, is the decline of the high street, with traditional shops being replaced by vape shops and barbers.

This is a unique byelection, Reform against Andy Burnham. Any other labor candidate would almost certainly loose the seat to Reform.

As one voter said of Burnham: “I think he’s doing a good job for Manchester, he’s done a cracking job as mayor, and I think he’ll make a good prime minister.”

“Two eyes staring cold and silent Shows fear as he turns to hide”

I deliberately picked today’s title to confuse readers..

Reform UK and Farage aren’t the answer to anything substantive. It is simply divisive racism. Ultimately, I think there is a base level of inherent decency in this country that will stop him.

His comments this morning surrounding the fatal stabbing of 18-year-old Henry Nowak and the police response that followed highlight this.

The usual cry of a “two-tier Britain”, are will serve only to further divide the country.

His complaint that  white people go “straight to the back of the queue,” is just inflammatory. As is, “We as a nation have a right to be angry on their behalf”.

Yes, the police made mistakes. But, then if you’re black you would be used to that.

Farage’s comments aren’t designed to help, they are simply incendiary. There is no intent other than to stir-up racial hatred.

He doesn’t have solutions; inequality won’t diminish, and the cost-of-living will continue its upward trajectory through the social classes. All he offers is someone to blame.

Lyrically, we return to the early-80s and Blitz. Grab your eyeliner as we start with “Too cut a long story short” by Spandau Ballet, and end with “Fade to grey” by Visage.

Philip

@coldwarsteve

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

Click on the link to see all Brexit Bulletins:

The post The Times They Are A-Changin’: Reform is the Answer appeared first on USNewsRank.