The Times They Are A-Changin’: The Theatre of the Absurd 

“That Halloween Jack is a real cool cat
And he lives on top of Manhattan Chase” ⁽¹⁾ 

This week saw the annual The Met Gala, the annual fundraising event for the Metropolitan Museum of Art’s Costume Institute in New York.  

Tables reportedly cost $350,000, and have been snapped-up by Trump’s tech bros at Meta/Instagram, Open AI, Amazon, Snapchat, etc.. 

The stars were present in all their finery, often dressed by stylists seemingly determined to make them look as laughable as possible. Marie Antoinette’s Versailles looked like a temple of Jil Sander minimalism in comparison. 

This year honorary chair was Lauren Sánchez and her husband, the Amazon founder, Jeff Bezos.  

This is the same Lauren who, in January’s Paris haute couture shows, was draped in diamonds and high-end dead animals, whilst Amazon were laying-off of 16,000 workers. This was followed days later by laid-off Washington Post staffers seeking crowdfunding to get out of the war zones they were in the middle of covering.  

Clearly, the Bezos’ are taking “Qu’ils mangent de la brioche”, to new levels. 

Elsewhere in the US absurdity is fast becoming a way-of-life. 

‘in the US absurdity is fast becoming a way-of-life’ 

The deadline has passed for Trump to ask Congress to approval his Iran war. Under the 1973 War Powers Act, a president has the authority to respond to an “imminent threat” provided he notifies Congress in writing within 48 hours. Following this, president has 60 days either to withdraw U.S. forces or to obtain Congress’s authorisation. 

Rather than doing either, Trump is insisting that “hostilities that began on February 28…terminated” on April 7, when he ordered a two-week ceasefire.  

Clearly, this is just another example of the administration seeking to contravene the constitution, by choosing to ignore the fact the U.S. fired on an Iranian tanker on April 19. The administrations letter said: “there has been no exchange of fire between United States Forces and Iran since April 7, 2026.” 

The military itself has faced Stalinesque purges, with Trumps defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, making it his mission to remake a military ethos he denounced as “woke”, firing or forcibly retired 24 generals and senior commanders, with no performance-related reason given. 

‘there is no good outcome for the US, and the war is making Iran stronger’

About 60% have been Black or female, an approach seemingly driven by the administration’s proclaimed onslaught against “DEI hires”. 

Hegseth, at a hearing of the Senate armed services committee, told Jack Reed, a Democrat from Rhode Island: “Members on this committee and the previous leadership of this department were focused on height, social engineering, race and gender in ways that we think were unhealthy.” 

Paul Eaton, a retired army major-general who commanded US forces after the 2003 invasion of Iraq, said that this purge dovetail with plans spelled out in Project 2025, the radical blueprint drawn up by the right-wing Heritage Foundation that has guided Trump’s second-term policies. 

Eaton said: “It talked about an officer purge and going after the so-called woke officers at the senior level. They want to create ideologically pure armed forces that will be pliant to the president and his secretary of defense and whose oath will be more to a person than to the constitution. 

“I believe that the senior leadership of the US military has been substantially damaged.” 

‘This war itself is proving an embarrassment for Trump’

This war itself is proving an embarrassment for Trump, who, last week, rejected that proposal from Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Their terms ignored his demand for the termination of Iran’s nuclear program, effectively denied Trump the victory he desperately needs. 

The longer this continues the clearer it becomes that there is no good outcome for the US, and the war is making Iran stronger. 

Economically, we have not yet seen the full impact of Iran’s’ blockade of Hormuz, through which passes 15% of the world’s oil. There’s no real way around the blockade, barring a trickle by pipeline. Therefore, basic economics; falling supply equals rising prices. 

As research from Goldman Sachs highlights, whilst prices have increased considerably demand has only slightly fallen, being supported by the utilisation of existing inventories.  

This works because, to date, it has been supported by the belief, or hope that the strait will reopen soon and prices will come down. When that belief dissipates prices will increase.  

Put simply, the price of oil needs to reach a level where consumption falls by another 11 million barrels a day. With global consumption of C.100 million a day, this means an 11% reduction, which will only come about through further price increase. 

‘the price of oil needs to reach a level where consumption falls by another 11 million barrels a day’

Domestically, gas is at its highest level in 4-years, and unless Trump can end the war it will go higher. 

Of course, there is another way; lie. Currently this is Republicans preferred option. Sen. Tim Scott said that “gas prices continue to come down,” while House Majority Leader Steve Scalise declared that gas is much cheaper than it was “two years ago,” when, he claimed, it was $6 a gallon. The price was actually $3.66. 

The defense secretary, told Congress that gas prices in California were $8 a gallon on the eve of the Iran war; the average was $4.64. 

Obviously, they must think the electorate are stupid, the truth is there for all to see, displayed at every gas station. 

The story with inflation is the same, there is none. Furthermore, Trump is now claiming that inflation was 5% when he returned to office, and assuming the credit for it falling before he took office.  

The truth is simple; the Biden years were more successful than he was given credit for, especially by Trump’s left behind MAGA base.  

In his book, “The Wage Standard: What’s wrong in the labor market and how to fix it”, Arindrajit Dube, the Provost Professor of Economics at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, found that during the Biden years, real wages for the bottom 80% of workers grew faster than at any time over the previous 40 years.  

Moreover, growth was especially high at the very bottom of the wage distribution, the “unexpected compression” with low-earning worker benefitting from faster wage growth than the higher paid, reducing the wage gap. 

‘what is truly absurd is the left behind MAGA voters, who returned Trump to the White House continue to struggle whilst the gilded few flaunt their wealth!’

The ratio of wages for the bottom 10% comparted to those in the top 10%, began to increase during the Reagan years, peaking prior to Covid at 4.8. This declined substantially under Biden, meaning that, whilst America was still a hugely unequal society, it was less so than it had been for a generation. 

Whether this continues dependent on the labor market, fewer vacancies are the strongest driver of wage compression. Dube’s thesis is that a tight labor market, where workers find it easy to get jobs and employers find it hard to get workers, drives wage growth, especially among the low paid. 

This was the case under Biden, but, under Trump this has largely disappeared. 

In conclusion, what is truly absurd is the left behind MAGA voters, who returned Trump to the White House continue to struggle whilst the gilded few flaunt their wealth! 

“You’re in suspension you’re a liar” (2) 

Today we consider the absurdity that is Trump’s America.

Last night was the Met Gala where the absurd is normal. Tables cost a fortune, snapped-up be the tech bros and “A” listers. B-celebs aren’t allowed!

The global fashion houses work with the “A” listers to create dresses, most of which I suspect are comped as they likely cost a minimum of $50,000. Not that this worries the fashion houses, the majority are owned by LVMH, Kerring, and Prada, so it’s small change when you can charge £500+ for a T-shirt with a logo on!

Elsewhere in the US, Trump’s war is increasingly unpopular. Inflation is now nailed-on, and the AI sector still looks precarious.

The administration has failed, and I can’t see it making a glorious comeback. More likely, it will become increasingly insular and aggressive, all of which suggests more authoritarianism.

In the UK, Thursday’s local election might be more telling than we think.

It seems certain that both labor and Tories will have a bad day. Who benefits is the big question?

Tactical voting to keep-out Reform is talked about; if so, the LibDems could prevail. In addition, I can see Reform suffering from Farage’s relationship with Trump.

As for the PM, well, it was nice knowing him—actually, it wasn’t! I really cannot see him surviving much longer, and Burnham seems to be readying himself.

Lyrically, we open with “Diamond Dogs” by David Bowie; I’m sure Halloween Jack was at the Gala. We close with “Liar” by the Sex Pistols, because lies are about all Trump has left.

Enjoy!

Philip.

@coldwarsteve

Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.

Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s

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