The U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, D.C., on May 7, 2025. (Photo by Jennifer Shutt/States Newsroom)
WASHINGTON — Communities throughout the country have been inundated with television ads and outside spending as politicians try to spur voter turnout in the most competitive U.S. House races in Tuesday’s midterm elections.
The focus on a short list of campaigns highlights how much power voters in a small number of congressional districts have to determine whether Republicans keep control of that chamber for the next two years or Democrats take over.
The choices Americans make before voting ends on Election Day will determine not only which bills House lawmakers debate during the next Congress, but whether they launch investigations of President Donald Trump and his administration.
With a short time left before election officials begin counting ballots, there are just 16 House races rated as toss-ups as of Oct. 29 by at least two of the three prominent election analysts — the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, Inside Elections and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
Here’s the list:
California’s 22nd District
Republican Rep. David Valadao has been a member of Congress since 2013, except during 2019 and 2020. Democratic challenger Randy Villegas, a community college professor, hopes to unseat the incumbent with a progressive message that’s garnered the backing of Sen. Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent. The redrawn district spans Fresno to Bakersfield. CalMatters reports voter registration at 42% Democratic, 26% Republican and 24% no party preference. More details on this race and others can be found in the nonprofit newsroom’s voter guide.
Florida’s 14th District
Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor, a member of the House for two decades, is seeking another term, while former state Rep. Mike Beltran, the Republican nominee, hopes to unseat her. The redrawn district now covers a large section of Hillsborough County in addition to sections of Tampa, making it somewhat more favorable to Republicans. The race is one of only five rated as a toss-up by all three election analysts. More details on the two candidates in the Florida Phoenix voter guide.
Florida’s 22nd District
The reshaped district that covers parts of Broward, Collier, Hendry and Palm Beach counties has no incumbent running for reelection this year. Democrat Pia Dandiya and Republican Casey Askar are both vying for this particular seat for the first time. Florida Phoenix has more on the race here.
Iowa’s 2nd District
The district, spanning parts of northeast Iowa, including Dubuque, Cedar Rapids and Waterloo, is open after Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson decided to seek a U.S. Senate seat instead. State Rep. Lindsay James, a Democrat, and former state Rep. Joe Mitchell, a Republican, are among the candidates seeking the seat. Voters in this corner of Iowa strongly favored Hinson last time, giving her 57.1% of the vote. Read more in Iowa Capital Dispatch’s voter guide.
Kentucky’s 6th District
Republican Rep. Andy Barr, who won the last election with 63% of the vote, is not seeking another term in the House, clearing the way for voters to pick from a group of non-incumbents. The frontrunners are largely expected to be former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado, a Republican, and former Assistant U.S. Attorney Zach Dembo, a Democrat. The district in northeastern Kentucky starts just east of Frankfort and includes Lexington and Richmond. The Kentucky Lantern’s voter guide can be found here.
Michigan’s 4th District
Republican Rep. Bill Huizenga, first elected to Congress in 2010, is seeking another term, this time against Democratic challenger Sean McCann, a state senator. Huizenga won his last election with 55.1% of the vote. The district south of Grand Rapids largely hugs the coast of Lake Michigan. It includes Benton Harbor, Holland and Kalamazoo. The Michigan Advance’s voter guide can be found here.
Michigan’s 7th District
Republican Rep. Tom Barrett, a first-term congressman, is attempting to fend off a challenge from Democratic candidate William Lawrence, co-founder of the progressive Sunrise Movement. Barrett won his last election with 50.3% of the vote. The district includes a section of central Michigan that covers Howell and Lansing. Republicans have allocated $28.4 million to ad spending in this race, while Democrats have dedicated $19.4 million, which is the third highest of any House race, according to AdImpact. The race is one of only five rated as a toss-up by all three election analysts. More info on the candidates and the race can be found in the Michigan Advance’s voter guide.
Michigan’s 10th District
The open seat will give voters the chance to choose between Republican Mike Bouchard, an Army veteran, and Democrat Christina Hines, a local prosecutor. The district, just northeast of Detroit, includes Saint Clair Shores, Warren, Sterling Heights and Rochester. Republican Rep. John James, who won his last election with 51.1% of the vote, opted to run for governor instead. Additional details in the Michigan Advance’s voter guide.
Montana’s 1st District
Republican Rep. Ryan Zinke’s decision not to seek reelection made the district, which covers much of the western side of the state, one of more than 70 open seats with no incumbent. Republican Aaron Flint, a radio talk show host, and Democrat Sam Forstag, a smokejumper wildland firefighter, both hope to represent the region’s voters during the next Congress. Zinke won the last election with 52.3% of the vote. The Daily Montanan’s voter guide can be found here.
New York’s 17th District
Republican Rep. Mike Lawler is seeking a third term from voters in the district that spans parts of the lower Hudson Valley, including sections of Westchester and Rockland counties. Democratic candidate Cait Conley seeks to unseat him. Lawler secured reelection last time with 52.2% of the vote. The race is one of many throughout the country that House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has traveled to in an attempt to rally voters. The race is one of only five rated as a toss-up by all three election analysts. New York Focus’ election guide can be found here.
North Carolina’s 1st District
Democratic Rep. Don Davis, who was first elected in 2022, is trying to secure reelection amid a challenge from Republican candidate Laurie Buckhout. The redrawn district covers much of the northeastern corner of the state, including the Outer Banks, Rocky Mount and New Bern. The race has the most ad spending of any House campaign, according to AdImpact, which reports Democrats have spent $29.6 million and Republicans have dedicated $23.3 million. More details in NC Newsline’s voter guide.
Ohio’s 7th District
Republican Rep. Max Miller, who is under investigation by the House Ethics Committee for allegations he “may have engaged in domestic violence and abuse or illegal drug use,” is seeking a third term. Democratic candidate Brian Poindexter, a Brook Park City councilman, is trying to unseat him. The campaign has been especially contentious. The slightly redrawn district begins just outside Cleveland and covers Medina and Wooster. The race is one of only five rated as a toss-up by all three election analysts. The Ohio Capital Journal’s voter guide, which has information on other races, can be found here.
Ohio’s 9th District
Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur has been a member of the House since January 1983, making her the longest serving woman in the chamber. She is seeking a 23rd term, though former state Rep. Derek Merrin, a Republican, hopes to defeat her. The redrawn district covers a small section of the Lake Erie coastline, including Sandusky and Toledo, before moving inward to the Michigan and Indiana borders. It is generally considered more favorable to Republicans than it was during the last election. The race is one of only five rated as a toss-up by all three election analysts. The Ohio Capital Journal’s voter guide, which has information on other races, can be found here.
Texas’ 15th District
Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz is one of many incumbents in Texas seeking reelection in a redrawn district, which now covers a different section of the Rio Grande Valley, just north of the Mexico border. Democratic candidate Bobby Pulido, an award-winning musician, hopes to defeat her. The Texas Tribune’s voter guide has details on this race as well as everything else on the ballot.
Texas’ 35th District
Voters in and around San Antonio will have two entirely new candidates to choose from in the redrawn district — Republican Carlos De La Cruz and Democrat Johnny Garcia. The Texas Tribune has more details on the race here.
Virginia’s 1st District
Republican Rep. Rob Wittman, who joined the House in December 2007 following a special election, is seeking another two-year term. Henrico County Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, the Democratic candidate, hopes voters will choose her instead. The district, like many in the country, is somewhat oddly shaped. It wraps around the top of Richmond and then extends out to the Chesapeake Bay. The Virginia Mercury’s voter guide has more information on this race and others.