“I was drowned, I was washed up and left for dead” (1)
If the PM is washed, he doesn’t appear to have got the message.
labor’s own website says: “The labor Party was formed out of the trade union movement to give working people their own political voice.”
The unions are telling the party: “labor’s affiliated unions have been clear that labor cannot continue on its current path … the results at the election last week were devastating … labor is not doing enough to deliver the change that working people voted for at the general election.”
‘He promises change but continually delivers continuity’
In last week’s local elections, labor lost more than 1,460 seats in England, in Wales the party trailed behind Plaid Cymru and Reform and in Scotland, labor, who had previously hoped to become the dominant party, finished a distant second to the SNP.
Analysis by Sky News showed that, when compared with last year’s results, Reform went backwards, whilst there were signs of a Tory recovery. On the left, labor and the LibDems, lost out to the Greens.
The 2024 general election highlighted our two-party system; labor and the Tories won 532 out of 632 mainland seats, whilst Reform and the Greens, who captured 22% of the vote but won only 9-seats between them.
Now, with the demise of big-two, the next general election is likely to see a big rise in votes for both Reform and Greens, which, as their vote become more concentrated, will see both win more seats.
Research from Election Polling shows how this might look:
| % Vote | No. of Seats | |
| Reform | 27.24 | 270 |
| labor | 18.54 | 147 |
| Conservative | 18.44 | 68 |
| Green | 15.07 | 8 |
| LibDems | 12,28 | 78 |
They project a swing of 14.3% from labor to Reform, leaving the latter 56 seats short of an overall majority.
Source: https://www.electionpolling.co.uk/polls/general-election
Despite a clear message from the electorate and trades unions, the PM isn’t for turning. In his headline speech he acknowledged “incremental change won’t cut it”, and then proposed exactly that!
He did highlight Nigel Farage’s silence over a broken Brexit, and pledged a half-hearted return to “the heart of Europe”, with no mention of rejoining the single market or the customs union.
In summary, samo, samo. He promises change but continually delivers continuity. Voters have given-up on him, he has become the summation of their cumulative resentment of politicians who promise everything and deliver nothing.
‘Despite a clear message from the electorate and trades unions, the PM isn’t for turning’
Is Reform the answer? No. Can they do any worse? Yes, much!
Aside from a hardline immigration policy, they aren’t offering anything new, it’s reheated Thatcherism; cut spending, shrink the state, lower taxes, sold to the electorate by emphasising their resentment and playing on their nationalistic sentiments.
In 2025, in their breakthrough local elections, Reform promised to cut “wasteful” spending on diversity initiatives, but, once in-power they discovered there wasn’t any to talk of.
Instead, they resorted to cutting social care. In Derbyshire, their plan to shut eight care homes was called a “betrayal of local people”. Similar plans in Lancashire entailed the closure of five public care homes as well as five day centres, with residents moved to the private sector.
Another pledge was to either to freeze or cut council tax.
Again, once in-power they discovered it wasn’t so easy. Instead, nine Reform councils raised Band D council tax for 2026-27 by an average of 3.94%. Whilst this was lower than the overall average increase of 4.86%, it shows that what they tell voters is easy is far from it.
As Trump has shown in the US, it is the left behind who, in hope, vote for you, the big winners are those with the most.
In fact, it was those with the most, using their wealth to buy political power, who put Trump there
‘Is Reform the answer? No. Can they do any worse? Yes, much!’
An example of this, was Peter Thiel bankrolling J.D. Vance’s Ohio Senate campaign. Without Thiel, Vance wouldn’t be one-step from being president.
In the UK, our own national populists, Reform, have benefitted from similar largesse, receiving the largest ever single donation by a living person to a British political party of £9m, from cryptocurrency investor and aviation entrepreneur Christopher Harborne.
Farage said: “I’ve not promised him a single thing in return for his donation.”
“Does he want anything from me? No. Absolutely nothing in return at all.”
“He just happens to think that we’ve not made the most of Brexit, that we’re not getting into the 21st Century technologies.”
Whilst Farage is a long-way from Trump in respect of monetising his position, which, in January, The New Yorker estimated to be $4bn, he isn’t doing badly. Analysis by the investigations website DeSmog shows Farage registering more than £2m in financial interests since July 2024, when he was elected as the MP for Clacton.
This, of course, excludes the £5m gift from Christopher Harborne prior to the 2024 general election, potentially in violation of parliamentary rules, which we are told it was given “so that I would be safe and secure for the rest of my life.”
To date, the gift hasn’t been declared, and, as a result, the parliamentary commissioner for standards is understood to have begun an investigation under rule 5 of the code of conduct obliging MPs to “fulfil conscientiously” requirements relating to their registration of interests
If this is found to be a serious breach of parliamentary declaration rules, he could be suspended from the Commons. A suspension of 10 days or more could trigger a recall petition, potentially forcing him to fight again for his Clacton seat.
‘The real root cause of the electorates frustration and resentment is that they feel poor’
In which case, this will become the will of the people against the establishment, the old, and somewhat tired populist favourite claim.
It would seem the electorate have concerns over this opaque situation; a Survation poll for 38 Degrees, a progressive campaign group, found that 68% had concerns the gift could give Harborne “inappropriate influence” over Farage’s political decisions and priorities.
The real root cause of the electorates frustration and resentment is that they feel poor. This isn’t new, it has been simmering under the surface since 1980, but post-GFC has become increasingly prevalent.
‘Perhaps the more things change the more they stay the same’
Prior to 1980, UK income inequality, measured by the Gini coefficient (0–100 scale) had been declining. ,
However, after the election of Margaret Thatcher in 1979, it came back with a vengeance, increasing from C.26 in 1980 to 33 by 1994. It has fluctuated since, hitting peaks around 2007–2009 and remaining high, with the 2024 score reported at 34.1.
If housing costs are included it gets worse, increasing the Gini coefficient to 39 for the year 2023/24.
Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/872472/gini-index-of-the-united-kingdom/
Whilst, it may not be peoples biggest concern, 85% of Britons think inequality is an important problem:
- 6% say it is “the single most important problem”
- 36% say it is “one of the most important problems”
- 43% think it is “important, but not the most urgent problem
- 10% think it is “not very” or “not at all” important
- 5% are unsure.
Globally, 52% of those surveyed see inequality as the single or one of the most important problems facing their country, whereas 42% of Britons say that.
Demographically, the victims of inequality give it higher importance.
56% of Millennials are most likely to say inequality is among the top problems facing Britain, 41% of Gen Z, 40% of Gen X and 30% of Baby Boomers.
Perhaps the more things change the more they stay the same.
“I was crowned with a spike right through my head” (1)
Notes:
- The ‘Stones and “Jumpin’ Jack Flash”, One, two,….
The opening salvo is upon us.
Wes Streeting has resigned and is looking to start a leadership challenge.
Angela Rayner is also clear to stand
Andy Burnham looks like being left in the (non) starting gate, unless he brokers a deal with Starmer and delays the challenge; unlikely!
Chancellor Reeves realising that her days are numbered is telling anyone who will listen: “if economy ain’t broke, don’t fix it”. This is based on the surprising growth of 0.3% in March – much stronger than City economists’ forecasts for a 0.2% contraction, which the chancellor said showed she had the right economic plan.
Errr, no. One swallow doesn’t make a summer, Rachel.
Part of me thinks, what’s the point? Same dog, different fleas.
Another thinks that someone like Rayner. might just take-up the fight. If not, the Daily Mail will have a field day.
Enjoy!
Philip.
@coldwarsteve
Philip Gilbert is a city-based corporate financier, and former investment banker.
Philip is a great believer in meritocracy, and in the belief that if you want something enough you can make it happen. These beliefs were formed in his formative years, of the late 1970s and 80s
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